【摘要】 基于2016—2020年天津市中暑门诊和住院就诊数据,利用广义相加模型和分布滞后非线性模型对气象要素与中暑就诊率的关系进行了分析,引入人体热量平衡模型和热舒适评价指标(PMV),建立了本地化中暑气象风险预警指标。结果表明:天津地区中暑门诊人数和住院人数集中在每年6月下旬到8月上旬,5年中84%的中暑高发事件集中在6次连续过程中,其发生与当日和前一日气象条件相关性最高,当最高气温大于35℃时,中暑人数明显增多。男性比女性更易中暑,老人就诊率显著高于一般人群。中暑就诊率与平均气温、最高气温、相对湿度、太阳辐射强度呈正相关,与平均气温相关性最强,与风速呈负相关。引入人体热量平衡模型,显示PMV与中暑就诊率的相关性高于任何单一气象要素,PMV在评价中暑气象风险方面具备明显优势。并且,以PMV为关键指标形成预报方程。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the outpatient and inpatient data of heatstroke in Tianjin from 2016 to 2020,a comparative analysis of the relationship between meteorological factors and the heatstroke outpatient rate is conducted using the Generalized Additive Modeland Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model.By introducing the human heat balance model and predicted mean vote(PMV),a localized heatstroke meteorological risk warning index is established.The results show that the numbers of outpatient and inpatient cases of heatstroke in Tianjin are concentrated from late June to early August each year,with 84% of the peak heatstroke days occurring in 6 continuous weather processes over the 5 years.The occurrence of heatstroke is most correlated with the meteorological conditions of that day and the previous day.There is a significant increase in heatstroke cases when the maximum temperature exceeds 35℃.Males are more susceptible to heatstroke than females,and the outpatient rate of the elderly is significantly higher than the general population.The heatstroke outpatient rate is positively correlated to average temperature,maximum temperature,relative humidity,and solar radiation intensity,with the strongest correlation with average temperature but a negative correlation with wind speed.Introducing the human heat balance model,PMV shows a higher correlation with the heatstroke outpatient rate than any single meteorological factor,indicating PMV has a clear advantage in evaluating heatstroke meteorological risk.A forecasting equation with PMV as the key indicator is developed.更多还原