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招远地区近61年气候变化特征及突变分析

Analysis of climate change characteristics and mutation changes in Zhaoyuan area in the past 61 years

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【作者】 樊献政张娟杨金玲张翠英

【Author】 Fan Xianzheng;Zhang Juan;Yang Jinling;Zhang Cuiying;Zhaoyuan Meteorological Bureau;Heze Meteorological Bureau;

【通讯作者】 张翠英;

【机构】 招远市气象局菏泽市气象局

【摘要】 文章基于招远市1961—2021年国家级气象观测站的地面观测整编资料,利用一元线性回归分析、气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall检测法,分析了招远地区年平均气温、极端最低气温、气温年较差、降水量和日照时数等气候变化特征及年变化趋势。结果显示:近61年招远地区年平均气温呈极显著的上升趋势,每10年上升0.24℃;降水总体变化趋势不明显,每10年下降0.34 mm,降水主要集中在20世纪80年代;日照时数呈明显减少趋势,每10年减少63.1 h;年平均气温、极端最低气温和日照时数突变分别发生在1986,1975和1971年,年降水量突变较为频繁。研究结果为招远地区的可持续发展和农业资源高效利用提供支持。

【Abstract】 Based on the ground observation and compilation data of the national meteorological observatory in Zhaoyuan from 1961 to 2021,the climate change characteristics, such as annual change trend of the annual average temperature, extreme minimum temperature, annual difference of temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours in Zhaoyuan are analyzed, by using univariate linear regression analysis, climate tendency rate, and Mann-Kendal method.The results show that the annual average temperature in Zhaoyuan has shown a very significant upward trend in the past 61 years, with an increase of 0.24 ℃ every 10 year.The overall trend of precipitation is not obvious, with a reduction of 0.34 mm every 10 year, and precipitation is mainly concentrated in the 1980s.The sunshine hours showed a significant decrease trend, with a decrease of 63.1 h every 10 year.The mutation changes of annual average temperature, extreme minimum temperature and sunshine hours occurred in 1986,1975 and 1971 respectively, but the mutation changes of annual precipitation are relatively frequent.The research results provide support for the sustainable development and efficient utilization of agricultural resources in the Zhaoyuan area.

【关键词】 气候变化特征突变分析
【Key words】 climate changefeaturesmutation analysis
【基金】 山东省气象局2022年青年项目(2022SDQN10)资助
  • 【文献出处】 气象水文海洋仪器 ,Meteorological,Hydrological and Marine Instruments , 编辑部邮箱 ,2024年01期
  • 【分类号】P467
  • 【下载频次】19
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