【摘要】 人口是城市发展的基础性要素。相比于行政区划的统计口径，都市圈人口圈层分布的规律性研究，更贴近客观实际，更有助于都市圈的协调健康发展。研究范围涉及北京、东京、首尔、上海、广州、伦敦、华盛顿、巴黎八个都市圈2000年、2010年、2020年三期人口数据以及相关地理、产业数据，理论上依托既有圈层结构理论并从人口分布的角度重新审视，提出了都市圈人口分布的“四圈论”和“人口卫星圈”之说。具体而言，第一，都市圈人口密度呈现“L形”曲线分布，并依据峰值、分界点、聚集度三大参数阐释了该曲线的形成与形变过程。第二，都市圈人口分布具有共同的圈层结构。基于“四圈论”,提出了都市圈人口分布可能存在“人口核心圈—人口过渡圈—人口卫星圈—人口扩展圈”的四圈结构。第三，自然、经济、社会因素的影响在不同圈层显现。在都市圈之间的比较中，地形地貌显著影响都市圈外围圈层的人口集聚，人口卫星圈的第二产业和消费性服务业对人口核心圈的发展具有重要支撑作用，核心圈层人口密度对“L形”曲线有阶段性影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 Population is a fundamental element of urban development. Compared to the statistical caliber of administrative divisions, the study of the regularity of population distribution in metropolitan areas is closer to objective reality and more conducive to the coordinated and healthy development of metropolitan areas. The research scope involves population data in 2000, 2010 and 2020, as well as related geographical and industrial data, for eight metropolitan areas: Beijing, Tokyo, Seoul, Shanghai, Guangzhou, London, Washington, and Paris. Theoretically, based on the existing circle structure theory and re-examining from the perspective of population distribution, the Four Circle Theory and the concept of Population Satellite Circle for the population distribution of large metropolitan areas are proposed. Specifically, there are three main findings: First, the population density of metropolitan areas presents an “ L-shaped ” curve distribution, and the formation and deformation process of this curve is explained based on three parameters: peak value, boundary point, and aggregation degree. Second, the population distribution of metropolitan areas has a common circle structure. Based on the Four Circle Theory, it is proposed that the population distribution of metropolitan areas may have a four-circle structure of Population Core Circle-Population Transition Circle-Population Satellite Circle-Population Expansion Circle. Third, the influence of natural, economic, and social factors is evident in different circles. The terrain and landform affect the population aggregation in the outer circles, the secondary industry and consumer services in the Population Satellite Circle support the development of the Population Core Circle, and the population density of the core circle has a phased impact on the L-shaped curve.更多还原