【摘要】 时间银行互助养老模式理论上可以实现社区养老资源的整合，但这一养老新模式在农村地区的适宜性与社会需求潜力还鲜有研究。本文基于江苏省542份农户调查数据，运用二元Logistics模型，实证分析了影响农户对时间银行互助养老服务需求意愿的主要因素，揭示了时间银行在农村地区的需求潜力与适宜性。研究发现，面子偏好弱、收入水平和教育程度低的农村老年人对时间银行互助养老服务需求意愿显著为正；因代际关系差、离异丧偶等而家庭养老不足的老年群体对时间银行服务需求更大；社会正规养老服务供给越难、社区非连续性公益养老服务质量越好的地区，老年人群体越能接受和选择时间银行服务，时间银行的需求潜力与发展前景较好。研究为提升高龄、低教育水平、低收入弱势老人群体的养老福祉，为农村地区时间银行新型互助养老模式的推广政策提供了可参考实证依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The time bank mutual aid elderly care model can theoretically achieve the integration of community elderly care resources, but the suitability and social demand potential of this new elderly care model in rural areas are still rarely studied. It may implicit the potential and suitability of time bank demand in rural areas.Research has found that rural elderly people who are poor, single, have low levels of education, and have poor inter-generational relationships have a significantly positive willingness to demand time bank mutual aid elderly care services; The demand for time banking services among the elderly population in areas where family care is lacking and social elderly care facilities are scarce but community service capabilities are strong has significantly increased and increased in intensity. The demand potential and development prospects of time banking are good.The study provides reference empirical data for promoting the new mutual aid elderly care model of time banks in rural areas, in order to improve the elderly welfare of elderly people with advanced age, low education level, and low-income disadvantaged groups.更多还原