【摘要】 为评估“稻萍鱼”模式在福建省稻区的推广潜力，以“稻萍鱼”模式为研究对象，采用文献分析法、理论分析法、德尔菲法和界值法，从自然因素和社会经济因素2个维度构建福建省“稻萍鱼”模式推广潜力评价指标体系，并采用层次分析法和变异系数法确定指标的组合权重，运用综合评分法构建推广潜力的评价模型。结果表明：1）“稻萍鱼”模式推广潜力评价指标体系包括2个一级指标，12个二级指标。2）明晰了评价指标的内涵，建立了指标的数据收集与标准化方法。3）基于推广潜力的评价模型，“稻萍鱼”模式的推广优先级分为推广优先级最高、推广优先级较高、推广优先级较差、不适合推广等4个等级，并制定相应的推广策略。综上，评价指标的筛选方法和确定权重系数的方法合理，构建的指标体系较全面，涵盖了影响推广潜力的水资源、气候不稳定性、土壤条件、稻田资源、推广便利性和经济水平6个方面。本研究可为福建省因地制宜推广“稻萍鱼”模式提供科学依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to evaluate the promotion potential of the ‘rice-Azolla-fish’ model in Fujian Province, this study took the ‘rice-Azolla-fish’ model as the research object, and constructed the evaluation index system for the promotion potential of the ‘rice-Azolla-fish’ model in Fujian Province based on both natural and socio-economic factors by using literature analysis, theoretical analysis, Delphi method and boundary value method; Analytic hierarchy process and coefficient of variation were used to determine the combination weight of indicators, and the comprehensive scoring method was used to build the evaluation model of promotion potential. The results showed that: 1) The evaluation index system for the promotion potential of the ‘rice-Azolla-fish’ model included 2 first class indicators and 12 second class indicators. 2) The connotation of the evaluation index is clarified, and the methods for data collection and standardization of the index are established. 3) Based on the evaluation model of promotion potential, the promotion priority of ‘rice-Azolla-fish’ mode is divided into four levels(the highest promotion priority, the higher promotion priority, the lower promotion priority, and the unsuitable promotion) and the corresponding promotion strategies are formulated. In conclusion, the selection method of evaluation index and the method of determining weight coefficient are reasonable. The index system constructed in this study is comprehensive, which covers the six aspects affecting the promotion potential, namely water resources, climate instability, soil conditions, rice field resources, promotion convenience, and economic level. This study can provide scientific references for the promotion of ‘rice-Azolla-fish’ model in Fujian Province, based on local conditions.更多还原