【摘要】 在国家重点研发计划支持下，项目提出了陆表不均一性检测和订正的新方法，解决了渐变型不均一性检测和订正的难题，构建了中国地表太阳辐射、气温、地温、风速和降水等参数均一化站点和格点数据集，修订了关于中国地表风速变化趋势、增温格局及其形成机制的结论。融合多源数据，构建并验证了千米级、流域级或县域级的电厂、人口、生物质能、取水量、氮排放、二氧化碳排放等影响自然系统的关键人文要素历史和未来预估数据集。构建了未来关键人文要素情景，研制了碳中和目标下甲烷和氧化亚氮排放情景和用于驱动全球模式的未来情景，预估了中国碳中和战略的实施对全球变暖的减缓作用，发现中国碳中和对远期和中期全球变暖的减缓作用显著。给出了中国各省份水体氮排放安全阈值及超越时间，阐明了中国粮食产量与氮施肥的关系，提出了在保障粮食安全的前提下减少水体氮排放的有效途径，指出重构城乡养分循环体系是同时保障粮食安全和恢复水质的必要途径。发现全球饱和水汽压差的年际变化与大气二氧化碳浓度上升速率的年际变化显著相关，阐明了饱和水汽压差变化在调控生态系统生产力中的重要角色以及多因素耦合作用在生态系统生产力变化中的复杂影响。建议更全面细致地评估中国各种碳中和实现路径的社会经济和自然生态影响，以保证碳中和目标与其他可持续发展目标的协同实现。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the support of the National Key Research and Development program, the project proposed a new method for the detection and correction of inhomogeneity of the observed land surface climate data, solved the problem of the detection and correction of the gradual inhomogeneity, and constructed the station and grid data set for the homogenized surface solar radiation, air temperature, ground temperature, wind speed and precipitation in China.The conclusions on the trend of surface wind speed, warming pattern in China and its formation mechanism have been revised.Multi-source data were integrated to construct and validate historical and future datasets of key anthropogenic factors affecting natural systems such as power plants, population, biomass energy, water withdrawal, nitrogen emissions, and carbon dioxide emissions at the km, watershed, or county level.Scenarios of future key anthropogenic factors were constructed, methane and nitrous oxide emission scenarios under carbon neutrality targets and future scenarios used to drive global models were developed, and the mitigation effects of China’s carbon neutrality on global warming were estimated, and it was found that China’s carbon neutrality had significant mitigation effects on long-term and medium-term global warming.The safety threshold and overshoot time of water nitrogen emission in each province of China are given, the relationship between grain yield and nitrogen fertilization in China is expounded, and effective ways to reduce water nitrogen emission under the premise of ensuring food security are proposed.It is pointed out that the reconstruction of urban and rural nutrient cycling system is a necessary way to ensure food security and restore water quality at the same time.It is found that the interannual change of global water vapor deficit is significantly related to the interannual change of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration rising rate, which illustrates the important role of water vapor deficit change in regulating ecosystem productivity and the complex influence of multi-factor coupling on ecosystem productivity change.A more comprehensive and detailed assessment of the socio-economic and natural ecological impacts of China’s various pathways to carbon neutrality is recommended to ensure that the goal of carbon neutrality is achieved in synergy with other sustainable development goals.更多还原