【摘要】 以火电技术进步为视角，采用面板平滑转换回归（PSTR）模型，系统探讨了能源结构转型对火电排放的非线性影响。研究发现，能源结构转型对火电碳排放的影响具有显著的非线性特征，具体表现为高发电煤耗区域转型减排效果更为显著。此外，不同地区因能源禀赋和经济发展水平差异，转型效果存在显著差异。随着时间推移，能源结构优化和火电技术进步使得转型的边际减排效果逐步减弱。基于此提出政策建议，强调因地制宜推进能源转型、加强火电技术创新与推广、促进可再生能源发展，以推动能源绿色转型和火电行业可持续发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 From the perspective of technological advancements in thermal power generation, this study systematically explores the nonlinear impact of energy structure transition on carbon emissions from thermal power plants using a Panel Smooth Transition Regression(PSTR) model. The findings reveal that the effect of energy structure transition on carbon emissions from thermal power exhibits significant nonlinear characteristics, particularly showing a more pronounced reduction effect in regions with high coal consumption for power generation. Additionally, due to differences in energy endowments and levels of economic development across regions, the effectiveness of the transition varies significantly. Over time, the optimization of the energy structure and advancements in thermal power technology have led to a gradual weakening of the marginal emission reduction effects of the transition. Based on these insights, the study proposes policy recommendations, emphasizing the need to tailor energy transitions to local conditions, enhance innovation and dissemination of thermal power technologies, and promote the development of renewable energy to drive green energy transitions and ensure the sustainable development of the thermal power industry.更多还原