【摘要】 航油储运加注控制系统是重要的民航工业控制系统,失效风险是保障航空安全的基础。本文以航油储运加注控制系统为研究目标,提出了一种蝴蝶结和贝叶斯结合的失效分析方法。该失效分析的模型从具体业务角度出发,分析航油储运加注控制系统失效的中间事件,包括储运故障、供油故障和油料检测故障。然后,从功能安全与网络安全的角度出发,分析中间事件子事件发生因素。通过逻辑映射的方式,将蝴蝶结模型转化为蝴蝶结-贝叶斯模型,进一步分析子事件及顶层事件的发生概率。另外,本文提出的失效分析模型还主要考虑不同防护手段失效发生后可能导致的不同事故后果。最后,通过对航油储运加注控制系统的应用,验证该模型在系统失效风险分析方面的科学性和可行性。更多还原

【Abstract】 The aviation fuel storage,transportation and refueling control system is an important control system in the civil aviation industry,and preventing the risk of failure is the basis of aviation safety.This article focuses on the control system of aviation fuel storage,transportation and refueling,and proposes a failure analysis method combining bow and Bayesian methods.The failure analysis model starts from a specific business perspective and analyzes the intermediate events of the aviation fuel storage,transportation and refueling control system failure,including storage and transportation failures,fuel supply failures and fuel detection failures.Then,from the perspectives of functional safety and network security,it analyzes the factors that cause subevents of intermediate events.By using logical mapping,the bow model is transformed into a bow Bayesian model to further analyze the probability of subevents and top events.In addition,the failure analysis model proposed in this article mainly considers different possible accident consequences after failure of different protective measures.Finally,by applying the aviation fuel storage,transportation and refueling control system,the scientificity and feasibility of the model in system failure risk analysis are verified.更多还原