【摘要】 [目的 ]近期，在我国山东威海的黑松林中首次发现了外来入侵蛀干害虫锈色角胫象。本文通过预测其适生区，以期为高效率地做好检疫、监管和及时防治工作提供科学依据。[方法 ]基于气候、地形因子数据集，结合锈色角胫象实地分布数据，利用MaxEnt和ArcGIS软件预测分析锈色角胫象在当前及未来气候情景下适宜分布区的变化。[结果 ]锈色角胫象适生区主要分布在亚洲东部、欧洲全境以及北美洲东部，零星分布在南美洲的南部和大洋洲的东南部。在我国境内主要分布于华北、华中、华东等地区。在4种未来气候情景（SSP126、SSP245、SSP370和SSP585）下，高适生区有所减少，中适生区面积增加趋势大于减少趋势，低适生区明显扩大，锈色角胫象潜在适生区的质心变化整体表现出向西北方移动的趋势。[结论 ]最冷季度的平均温度（bio11）和最干燥季度的平均温度（bio9）是影响我国锈色角胫象分布最主要的限制因子。随着全球气候变暖，锈色角胫象适生区面积逐渐增加，地理分布格局向西北方向扩散，相关部门应加强对该害虫入侵的预警和防控。更多还原

【Abstract】 [Objective] Recently, Shirahoshizo rufescens, an invasive insect pest was first discovered in a black pine forest of Weihai, Shandong Province, China. This paper tries to predict potential suitable distribution range of this pest to provide scientific basis for early warning and monitoring, and timely prevention and control. [Method] Based on climate and terrain factor datasets, combined with field distribution data,MaxEnt and ArcGIS software were used to predict and analyze the changes in suitable distribution areas of S. rufescens under current and future climate scenarios. [Results] The suitable areas for S. rufescens were mainly distributed in eastern Asia, throughout Europe, and eastern North America, with sporadic distribution in the southern part of South America and the southeastern part of Oceania. In China, the suitable region mainly distributed in North China, Central China, East China etc. Under four future climate scenarios(SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585), the high suitability zone decreased, the area of the middle suitable area increased at a faster rate than decreasing, while the low suitability zones significantly expanded. The centroid change in the suitable distribution area of this pest showed an overall trend of moving towards the northwest. [Conclusion] The average temperature in the coldest quarter(bio 11) and the average temperature in the driest quarter(bio 9) are the main limiting factors affecting the distribution of S. rufescens in China. With global warming, the suitable habitat area is gradually increasing, and the geographical distribution pattern is spreading to the northwest. Relevant departments need to strengthen early warning and prevention of the invasion of this pine bark weevil.更多还原