【摘要】 为探究直链、发散链、集中链和循环链等灾害链拓扑结构复合复杂度对灾害演化网络风险的影响规律及断链防范风险的作用机制,首先将灾害演化网络按灾害链复合复杂程度分为α,β,γ和δ的4类网络,然后采用灾害演化风险评估模型,模拟研究确定灾害节点数量下灾害演化网络风险水平与其复杂度的关系,以及4类网络风险特点,最后揭示断链防范风险的作用机制。研究结果表明:灾害节点数量不变时,灾害演化网络风险水平与其复杂度具有一定的正相关关系;α类网络风险水平最低,β类网络具有高风险抑制效应,γ类网络风险具有爆发性,δ类网络风险兼具爆发性和持续性;断链防范风险的机制为,通过解耦降类,降低灾害演化网络风险水平。研究结果可为揭示断链防范风险的作用机制提供理论支撑。更多还原

【Abstract】 To investigate the influence of the composite complexity of topological structures in disaster chains such as linear chain,divergent chain,convergent chain,and cyclic chain on the risk of disaster evolution network and the acting mechanism of risk mitigation through chain disconnection,the disaster evolution networks were categorized into four types of α,β,γ,and δ based on the composite complexity of disaster chains. Then,the relationship between the risk level of disaster evolution networks and their complexity under the determined number of disaster nodes was simulated by using the assessment model of disaster evolution risk,and the risk characteristics of four types of networks were analyzed. Finally,the acting mechanism of risk mitigation through chain disconnection was revealed. The results show that under a constant number of disaster nodes,there is a certain positive correlation between the risk level of disaster evolution networks and their complexity. Specifically,α-type networks exhibit the lowest risk levels,β-type networks have high risk suppression effect,γ-type networks demonstrate explosive risk characteristics,and δ-type networks possess both explosive and persistent risk characteristics. The mechanism of risk mitigation through chain disconnection involves decoupling and class reduction,thereby lowering the risk level of disaster evolution networks. The research results can provide theoretical support for revealing the acting mechanism of chain disconnection to prevent risks.更多还原