【摘要】 2023年在疫情以后国民经济保持恢复态势，中国经济向着积极的方向复苏。但是经济恢复存在一定波动，预测2024年中国经济将平稳较快增长。文章综合运用了投入产出技术、景气分析、专家分析、统计和计量经济模型来预测国内生产总值（GDP）。通过回顾2023年中国的经济运行状况，并考虑到当下国内外的形势，预测显示2024年中国经济有望保持平稳运行，增速达到5.3%左右；基于对当前经济状况的分析，文章提出如下建议：加强宏观政策跨周期和逆周期调节力度；提升产业链现代化水平，提高产业链韧性和竞争力；稳定支持中小企业的发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 In 2023, China’s economy maintained a recovery trend after the epidemic. However, the economic recovery showed the characteristics of wave-like development, and it is expected that China’s economy will grow steadily and rapidly in 2024. This study introduces a comprehensive approach to forecasting annual GDP growth, integrating input-output models, econometric models,prosperity analysis, expert insights, and scenario analysis. Reviewing China’s economic performance in 2023 and the prevailing global and domestic conditions, it is projected that China’s GDP growth rate will be around 5.3% in 2024. Based on this analysis, several policy recommendations are suggested, namely, intensifying macro-control policies for both cyclical and counter-cyclical phases;elevating the industrial chain’s modernization to enhance its resilience and competitiveness; and providing steady support to the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises.更多还原