【摘要】 为保护矿区地表生态环境，提高喀斯特山区重复采动下地表沉陷变形的预测精度，首先理论分析了煤层采出后上覆岩层运移碎胀特征以及地表滑移机理，确定煤层采动引起山区地表移动变形的影响因素；在原有平地重复采动地表最大下沉值预测模型的基础上，考虑地表滑移对地表最大下沉值的叠加影响，构建了山区重复采动下地表最大下沉值预测模型，并结合数值模拟的方法，研究不同地面坡度下煤层采动对地表沉陷变形的影响；最后分别利用平地、山区重复采动下地表最大下沉值预测模型对采空区地表沉陷变形进行概率积分法预测，将预测结果与实测值进行对比分析。研究结果表明：基于山区重复采动下地表最大下沉值预测模型对采空区地表下沉值的预测精度较原有预测模型提高了1.4个百分点，水平移动值的预测精度提高了4.3个百点分，表明山区重复采动下地表最大下沉值预测模型具有实用性，可为类似矿区的地表沉陷研究提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to protect the surface ecological environment of the mining area and improve the prediction accuracy of surface subsidence deformation under repeated mining in karst mountainous areas.Firstly,a theoretical analysis was conducted on the characteristics of fragmentation and swelling of the overlying strata after coal seam extraction,as well as the mechanism of surface sliding,and the influencing factors of surface movement and deformation in mountainous areas caused by coal seam mining were determined.On the basis of the original prediction model of the maximum surface subsidence value under repeated mining on the flat ground,considering the superposition effect of surface landslide on the maximum surface subsidence value,the prediction model of the maximum surface subsidence value under repeated mining in mountainous areas was constructed.Secondly,combined with the method of numerical simulation,the influences of coal seam mining on surface subsidence deformation under different ground slopes were studied.Finally,the prediction models of maximum surface subsidence values under repeated mining in flat ground and mountainous areas were used to predict the surface subsidence deformation of goaf by probability integral method,and the prediction results were compared with the measured values.The results show that the prediction accuracy of the maximum surface subsidence value prediction model based on repeated mining in mountainous areas is1.4percentage points higher than that of the original prediction model,and the prediction accuracy of the horizontal movement value is 4.3percentage points higher than that of the original prediction model.The results indicate that the prediction model of the maximum subsidence value under repeated mining in mountainous areas is practical and can provide a reference for the study of surface subsidence in similar mining areas.更多还原