【摘要】 近废型稠油油藏难以通过常规开发方式有效动用剩余储量，火驱技术为此类油藏进一步提高采收率提供方向。现阶段，火驱技术已趋于成熟，但由于成本投入大、经济性差，火驱技术的推广应用面临困境。通过引入量本利分析法中的盈亏平衡模型和敏感性分析，从多维度的经营视角，揭示不同油价年产油量和成本的平衡关系，明确影响火驱经济性的关键指标，进而推动生产运行优化和决策效能提升。研究结果表明，由于储层前后认识差距大，投入力度大于产出力度，同时管控方向不明确，导致火驱成本有效性低，持续开发经营风险认识不足，影响油藏开发投入决策。研究结果为火驱的经营效益提升指明方向，也为近废型稠油油藏效益开发提供管理新思路。更多还原

【Abstract】 Nearly abandoned heavy oil reservoirs present significant challenges for effective reserve utilization using conventional development methods. In-situ combustion technology emerges as a promising solution to enhance recovery from such reservoirs,although its widespread adoption is hindered by high investment costs and economic inefficiencies. This study employs a breakeven model and sensitivity analysis within a volume-cost-benefit framework to explore the equilibrium between oil production costs and revenues under varying oil price scenarios from a multidimensional operational perspective. This approach clarifies the critical economic indices of fire-flooding operations and aims to optimize production operations and decision-making effectiveness.The findings reveal significant gaps in pre-and post-operation understanding of the reservoir, where inputs often surpass outputs,coupled with a lack of clear control strategies. These factors contribute to the low cost-effectiveness of in-situ combustion and insufficient grasp of sustained development and operational risks, ultimately impacting investment decisions in reservoir development. The study not only directs improvements in operational efficiency for in-situ combustion but also offers technical support and introduces new management strategies for the effective development of nearly abandoned heavy oil reservoirs.更多还原