【摘要】 为更加准确地反映企业的表外负债状况，我国新租赁会计准则要求承租人确认租赁相关的资产与负债。本文基于这一准则变革，研究了表外负债入表对分析师盈余预测的影响。实证结果表明，新租赁准则实施后，对于以往承租但未披露经营租赁的企业，分析师的盈余预测偏差显著降低。该效果在上市公司盈余信息透明度较低、财务杠杆风险较高、表外负债规模较大以及分析师经验较少的情境下更为显著。渠道分析发现，新租赁准则减少了表外负债企业的杠杆操纵程度和债务融资规模。此外，表外负债入表有效降低了分析师预测的乐观偏差。本研究不仅为表外融资与资本结构如何影响分析师决策提供了新的证据，也揭示了新租赁准则实施的经济后果。更多还原

【Abstract】 To more accurately reflect the off-balance-sheet liabilities of enterprises, China’s new lease accounting standards require lessees to recognize both lease-related assets and liabilities. Based on this regulatory reform, this study examines the impact of bringing off-balance-sheet liabilities onto the balance sheet on analysts’ earnings forecasts. The empirical results show that, following the implementation of the new lease standards, analysts’ forecast bias significantly decreases for companies that previously engaged in but did not disclose operating leases. This effect is more pronounced in scenarios where listed companies have lower earnings transparency, higher financial leverage risk, larger off-balance-sheet liabilities, and less experienced analysts. Channel analysis reveals that the new lease standards reduce the extent of leverage manipulation and debt financing scale for companies with off-balance-sheet liabilities. Additionally, bringing off-balance-sheet liabilities onto the balance sheet effectively reduces analysts’ optimistic bias. This study not only provides new evidence on how off-balance-sheet financing and capital structure influence analysts’ decision-making but also highlights the economic consequences of implementing the new lease standards.更多还原