【摘要】 今天的预测技术和人类一直依赖的推理一样，正在成为科学研究中重要的独立的驱动力。本文对二者进行比较，并指出了预测的不足，正是这种不足造就了今日AI技术发展中存在的一些天生的缺陷，最终导致实现不了agent建立完备世界模型的目标。但是，不能忽视的是，目前的AI技术已经具有缩小人与人之间智力水平的能力。更多还原

【Abstract】 Today’s predictive technologies are becoming as important and independent drivers of scientific research as the reasoning that humans have always relied on. This paper compares the two and points out the shortcomings of prediction, which are responsible for some of the inherent flaws in the development of today’s AI technology, ultimately leading to a failure to achieve the goal of agentically building a complete model of the world. However, it cannot be ignored that current AI technology has the ability to narrow the level of intelligence between people.更多还原