【摘要】 现有研究多从交通、产业、生态和空间中选取两至三个因素进行城市系统耦合协调发展评价，而将以上四者置于同一框架更能反映协调发展实况并依此制定科学的调整和规划方案。选取粤港澳大湾区上述城市系统代表性指标和2011—2020年相关数据建立综合发展水平评价体系，在利用C1型四变量耦合度模型对粤港澳大湾区城市系统耦合协调发展状况进行时空演化分析基础上，分别采用莫兰指数和灰色GM(1,1)模型对耦合协调发展进行空间差异性探究和预测。研究表明：粤港澳大湾区2020年综合发展水平较2011年提升32%,各子系统发展总体呈现波动式上升，产业子系统最为明显；区域耦合协调度等级由轻度失调发展提升为初级协调，且空间差异化显著；未来5年大湾区将加快协调发展并达到优质协调，但空间差异性仍将存在。更多还原

【Abstract】 Existing research mostly selects two to three factors from transportation, industry, ecology and space to evaluate the coupled and coordinated development of urban systems, while placing the above four factors in the same framework can better reflect the real situation of coordinated development and formulate scientific adjustments and planning schemes accordingly. Based on the spatial and temporal evolution analysis of the coupled and coordinated development of the urban systems in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Greater Bay Area using the C1-type four-variable coupling model, the spatial variability of the coupled and coordinated development is investigated and predicted using the Moran index and the grey GM(1,1) model, respectively. Research shows that: 1) The level of comprehensive development in the Greater Bay Area in 2020 will increase by 32% compared to 2011, and the overall development of various subsystems will show a fluctuating increase, with the industrial subsystems the most obvious; 2) The level of regional coupling coordination has been upgraded from mild unbalanced development to primary coordination, and the spatial differentiation is significant; 3) In the next five years, the Greater Bay Area will accelerate coordinated development and achieve high-quality coordination, but spatial differences will still exist.更多还原