【摘要】 电商模式的迅速发展为客户线上购物带来了便利，同时也使得物流供应链系统中客户需求的不确定性显著增强，考虑需求满足风险的网络设计问题成为第四方物流(fourth party logistics, 4PL)运作模式下的重要研究问题。针对这一问题，以概率视角刻画了需求满足风险，并构建了考虑需求均值的混合整数线性规划模型和考虑需求满足风险的机会约束规划模型，在需求正态分布的情况下，针对机会约束模型中非线性特征难以处理的问题，给出了一种基于需求正态分布的线性化方法，并给出了问题的等价线性模型。最后，通过数值实验对两种模型进行对比，验证了考虑需求满足风险的4PL网络设计模型的有效性和优越性，并探究了需求的随机性以及需求满足风险水平对网络设计的影响，给出了考虑需求满足风险的第四方物流网络设计的管理启示。更多还原

【Abstract】 The rapid development of e-commerce mode has brought convenience to customers’ online shopping, but at the same time, the uncertainty of customers’ demand in the logistics supply chain system has increased significantly, and the network design problem considering demand satisfaction risk has become an important research problem in the fourth party logistics(4PL)operation mode. To address this problem,portraying the demand satisfaction risk from the perspective of probability, and constructing a mixed integer linear programming model considering demand mean and a chance constraint programming model considering demand satisfaction risk. In the case of the normal distribution of demand, a linearization method based on demand of normal distribution is given for the non-linear characteristics of the chance constraint programming model, and an equivalent linear model of the problem is given. Based on the numerical experiment, the two models are solved and compared to verify the validity and superiority of the 4PL network design model considering demand satisfaction risk, and the effects of stochastic demand and demand satisfaction risk level on network design are explored, furthermore corresponding management insights of the risk of the fourth party logistics network design are also given.更多还原