【摘要】 针对高价值弹药引信利用全弹飞行试验验证其可靠性弹药价格昂贵，全弹的靶试试验量很小，且引信的可靠性指标高于全弹的可靠性指标的问题，充分地利用模拟试验数据对小子样进行重要数据补充；采用继承因子、环境因子折算数据，将不同类型的数据折合为成败型试验数据，再用CMSR方法根据系统串并联关系将多源数据融合，并将所得的数据与靶试数据结合，减少靶试试验样本量；以混合Beta分布为先验分布，得到了评估引信可靠性的Bayes方法，该法解决了模拟试验数据与靶试数据融合的问题；以某引信为应用背景进行了可靠性评估，证明该方法比经典方法减少了一定的靶场试验量。更多还原

【Abstract】 To address the issues that, ammunition prices are expensive for full missile flight tests to verify their reliability of high value missile fuses, there is fewer target test for full missiles, and the reliability indexes of fuses are higher than those of full missiles. Therefore, it is necessary to make full use of the simulation test data to supplement the important data for small samples. The inherited factor and environmental factor are used to convert different types of data into the successful or failed experimental data. Then, the combined modified maximum likelihood(MML) sequential reduction(SR)(CMSR) method is used to fuse multi-source data based on the series parallel relationship of the system, and the obtained data is combined with the target experimental data to reduce the sample size of the target experimental data. By taking the mixed Beta distribution as a prior distribution, it obtains the Bayes method for evaluating the reliability of fuses, the method solves the problem of integrating simulated test data with target test data. The reliability evaluation is conducted using a certain fuse as the application background, proving that this method reduces a certain amount of target field testing compared to classical methods.更多还原