【摘要】 对落水集装箱的受力和进水淹没过程进行分析，细化落水集装箱风致漂移系数与淹没率的线性关系。并以“SITC PYEONGTAEK”轮落水集装箱为例，结合区域海洋模式模拟的海流数据，用拉格朗日法和蒙特卡洛随机扩散相结合的粒子追踪法建立集装箱追踪模型模拟集装箱的漂移轨迹，再利用网格化统计方案对零散分布的粒子进行概率统计，分析掉落集装箱的漂移位置。通过实际案例中集装箱落水后的漂移轨迹对模型进行验证，表明该模型模拟得到的轨迹点与海上发现的漂浮集装箱点位基本吻合，说明该模型有助于快速锁定漂移区域，减少由落水集装箱带来的风险，增加航行单位对落水集装箱漂移轨迹的预测准确性，为集装箱落水港区及周边水域的通航安全提供保障。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the continuous development of maritime economy, China’s container transport demand is growing steadily.Under the changeable marine transportation environment, the potential danger to sea navigation brought by containes falling off ships gradually emerges.Based on the analysis of the immersed process of the falling container, the linear relationship between the coefficient of the wind drift and the immersed ratio of the falling container is proposed.Taking the containes containership "SITC PYEONGTAEK" in the Xiamen sea area as an example, a container tracking model was established based on the particle tracking method combined with Lagrange and Monte Carlo random diffusion to simulate the trajectory of the containes.A grid-discrete statistical scheme was used to analyze the drift positios of the falling container.The model was verified by using the drift track of containers after falling into water in practical cases, which showed that the track points simulated by the model were basically consistent with the floating container points found at sea after the accident.The model has certain application value, which is conducive to quickly locking the drift area and reducing the risk caused by falling containers.This helps to increase the accuracy of shipping companies prediction on the drift track of containers falling into water, and to ensure navigation safety in the port area with falling containers and its adjacent waters.更多还原