【摘要】 实现碳达峰目标的关键措施在于推动传统能源消费向可再生能源转型，探究不同能源政策工具的实际效果与作用机理有利于针对性地调试政策，对落实碳减排工作具有重要现实意义。本文在梳理能源转型政策驱动机理的基础上，构建能源转型的系统动力学模型。以湖北省为例，结合配额约束与补贴激励两类政策进行多情景模拟，研究发现：(1)基准政策情景下，到2025年湖北省可再生能源消费比重约19.5%,“十四五”规划中的能源转型目标将滞后一年实现，但能源碳排放总量可于2029年提前达到峰值；(2)9个碳排放配额与新能源补贴的组合政策情景下，仅有3个情景实现2025年的能源转型目标，要求政策制定至少满足高额补贴与低碳配额中的一项。4个情景无法于2030年实现碳达峰，表明新能源补贴需要至少维持现状或在降低补贴的同时进一步缩减碳排放配额；(3)“配额约束—补贴激励”存在良好的政策组合效应与互补关系，能够通过规模限制、技术进步、收益激励、需求替代多条路径实现政策目标。更多还原

【Abstract】 The primary measure for achieving the goal of the carbon peak is to facilitate the consumption transition from traditional energy to renewable energy.Exploring the impacts and mechanisms of various energy policy tools is beneficial for targeted policy adjustments, and holds significant practical implications for carbon emission reduction.Building up an analysis of the driving forces behind energy transition policies, this paper develops a system dynamics model, taking Hubei province as a case study, and conducts multi-scenario simulations by integrating two types of policies: quota constraints and subsidy incentives.The study findings are as follows:(1)According to the baseline policy scenario, the proportion of renewable energy consumption in Hubei province is projected to reach approximately 19.5% by 2025,with the energy transition goal in the 14th Five-Year Plan being achieved one year later than planned.However, total energy carbon emissions are expected to peak in 2029.(2)Only three out of the nine combined policy scenarios are in line with the 2025 energy transition target, which necessitates a reevaluation of policy formulation to ensure that at least one scenario incorporates high subsidies or low carbon quota.Additionally, four scenarios fall short of achieving the carbon peak by 2030,highlighting the need for new energy subsidies to either maintain current levels or further reduce the carbon emission quota while decreasing subsidies.(3)“Quota constraint-subsidy incentive”has a good policy combination effect and complementary relationship, and can achieve policy objectives through multiple paths such as scale restriction, technological progress, income incentive, and demand substitution.更多还原