【摘要】 应用动态的货币锚模型对主要国际货币在“一带一路”沿线国家的货币锚效应进行度量，基于货币锚效应的时变参数对其影响因素进行分析。结果表明，美元、人民币和欧元分别被“一带一路”沿线锚定的国家货币数量排在前三位，人民币在沿线国家的影响力仅次于美元，超过英镑和日元的影响力；美元等其他国际货币对“一带一路”沿线国家影响力的非绝对稳定性为继续提升人民币的影响力提供可能，影响人民币货币锚效应的显著性因素涉及金融、投资等多个领域。鉴于此，为继续提升人民币在“一带一路”沿线国家的货币锚效应，应持续强化“一带一路”倡议对人民币国际化的促进作用；不断提升我国的工业发展质量和保持拥有充足的外汇储备；确保我国与“一带一路”沿线国家的利率、汇率和通胀水平在合理的范围内波动。推动“一带一路”沿线国家政府管理效率进一步提升。更多还原

【Abstract】 The dynamic monetary anchor model is applied to measure the monetary anchor effect of major international currencies in the countries along the Belt and Road,and its influencing factors are analyzed based on the time-varying parameters of the monetary anchor effect. The results show that the US dollar,RMB and Euro are the top three national currencies anchored along the Belt and Road, and the influence of RMB in the countries along the route is second only to the US dollar,and exceeds the influence of the British pound and the Japanese yen. The non-absolute stability of the influence of the US dollar and other international currencies on countries along the Belt and Road makes it possible to further enhance the influence of RMB. Significant factors affecting the anchor effect of RMB involve many fields such as finance and investment. In view of this,in order to continue to enhance the currency anchor effect of RMB in countries along the Belt and Road, it is necessary to continue to strengthen the promoting role of the Belt and Road Initiative in the internationalization of RMB. Continuously improve the quality of China’s industrial development and maintain adequate foreign exchange reserves; to ensure that the interest rates,exchange rates and inflation levels of China and other countries along the Belt and Road fluctuate within a reasonable range. Promote the further improvement of the efficiency and the net inflow of foreign direct investment in the countries along the Belt and Road.更多还原