【摘要】 科举制度是保障中国传统社会运行的重要制度，本文从短期冲击与长期影响的视角对其进行了研究。基于宋元交际后科举中断这一外生冲击，广义双重差分回归结果显示，宋代累积的进士规模越大的地区，爆发民变的可能性也越大。进一步讨论显示，科举废除导致科举精英进一步向“地方精英”转变。最后，地方精英阶层的形成演进为后世明清传统地方社会格局奠定了历史制度基础。本文讨论了制度与治理的社会意义及长期影响、传统社会地方精英阶层主导下的社会稳态的形成演进过程及其对当代地方治理的启示价值，并论证了“宋代近世论”等历史命题的意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 The imperial examination system(Keju),originating in the Sui Dynasty and peaking in the Song Dynasty, was central to determining a person’s identity, status, and income in traditional Chinese society. It also played a key role in shaping social structures. After the Song Dynasty, local governance shifted to a “weak state, strong localities” model, and scholar-officials formed an “elite class” that linked the people to the state and maintained local order.This paper examines how the evolution of the imperial examination system impacted Chinese society both in the short and long terms. In the 13th century, the Mongol Yuan Dynasty disrupted the system, leaving the north and south with long gaps(over 80 and 40 years, respectively) without imperial exams. The abolition of exams after the Song Dynasty offers a unique “natural experiment” to assess the system’s influence on society. The breakdown of the link between local elites and the state contributed to increased rebellions during the Song-Yuan transition.Using historical data and a generalized difference-in-differences design, the study finds that regions with higher concentrations of Jinshi(the highest degree of Keju) in the Song Dynasty saw more rebellions after the exams were interrupted. The early Yuan Dynasty’s abolition of the system weakened the state’s ties to local elites, fostering the development of local self-governance. The paper also uses other historical events to show how the imperial examination system contributed to the localization of elites. From a long-term perspective, it suggests a link between local elites and governance mechanisms, including private family-based or clan-based systems.This paper makes three contributions: firstly, it highlights the long-term impact of institutional design on elite selection and governance; secondly, it analyzes the transformation of China’s social structure from the Song to the Ming and the Qing periods; and thirdly, it provides insights into the enduring legacy of the imperial examination system in Chinese civilization, influencing cultural traditions and stability.更多还原