【摘要】 党的二十大报告进一步强调了产业链安全问题。在中美科技竞争背景下，中国ICT(信息通信技术)产业链供应链存在明显的卡脖子问题。本文构建了一个多部门的生产网络一般均衡模型，刻画了ICT产业生产率断链脱钩负向冲击的宏观传导效应，并在ICT产业为互补品的前提下分析了针对ICT产业的外生生产率冲击对宏观经济的一阶技术效应和二阶结构效应。研究发现，与一阶效应相比，ICT产业受到的负向生产率冲击的宏观影响被放大，而正向生产率冲击的影响被削弱。此外，本文使用投入产出数据测算了ICT产业的替代弹性，并对ICT产业生产率冲击的宏观传导效应进行模拟。结果显示，针对ICT产业10%的生产率冲击会带来2.08%的一阶技术效应，且由于ICT产业在生产网络中位于关键位置、替代弹性小于1,生产率冲击产生了非对称的二阶结构效应，导致10%的负向生产率冲击造成的宏观影响被放大至2.14%,正向生产率冲击造成的宏观影响被减少至2.02%。进一步研究发现，为了抵消美国制裁的负面冲击，中国需要更大力度的补贴，且补贴ICT产业的作用最大，补贴ICT产业的上游产业的作用次之。中国应重视ICT产业链安全并加强产业数字化建设，以提升宏观经济稳定性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under US-China technological competition, China’s ICT supply chain faces significant security challenges, which may pose potential risks to macroeconomic stability through industry interconnections. This paper constructs a multi-sector production network general equilibrium model to characterize the macroeconomic transmission effects of ICT productivity shocks. Our findings reveal that productivity shocks in the ICT sector influence the macroeconomy through technical effects driven by industry interconnections. Additionally, due to the ICT sector’s critical position and low substitution elasticity within the production network, structural effects amplify negative productivity shocks’ macroeconomic impact while dampening positive shocks, leading to asymmetric effects of sanctions and subsidies. Quantitatively, our input-output analysis shows a substitution elasticity for China’s ICT sector markedly below 1,indicating substantial production complementarities. A 10% productivity shock in ICT yields a 2.08% first-order technical effect. Due to the low elasticity, a 10% negative shock results in a 2.14% macro impact, while a 10% positive shock yields a 2.02% impact. To offset adverse effects from US sanctions, China would require more substantial subsidies, with ICT sector subsidies being most effective, followed by upstream and then downstream industries. Our research highlights that ICT supply chain security is critical to macroeconomic stability, with ICT substitutability and digitalization in related industries as key factors in production network security and development.Policy recommendations include: First, we should prioritize ICT supply chain security by strengthening upstream technology and industry resilience. Second, we should counter sanctions with targeted strikes on segments with low substitution elasticity. Third, we should support ICT leaders in achieving critical technology breakthroughs and establishing backup mechanisms to enhance product substitutability. Fourth, as ICT subsidies are constrained by complementary input effects, we should focus on driving digital transformation, leveraging technology spillovers, and maximizing subsidy efficiency.This paper makes the following contributions: First, by analyzing low substitution elasticity in ICT through production network theory, it enriches research on ICT’s macroeconomic impact. Second, it offers a novel perspective on ICT supply chain security through industry interconnection, advancing understanding of the “bottleneck” issue. Third, it quantitatively depicts the asymmetric macroeconomic effects of ICT productivity shocks from sanctions and subsidies, providing a theoretical basis for sound policy formulation.更多还原