【摘要】 本文基于中国近代出口与近现代铁路建设的历史经验，探讨国际贸易与交通基础设施对区域经济长期增长的综合影响。理论与实证研究发现：近代出口贸易与铁路建设均能够显著促进区域人口长期增长，两者的影响具有替代性，该替代性在邻近历史口岸或较早开通铁路的地区相对较强。进一步分析表明，铁路一方面能够提升贸易区位劣势地区的企业出口参与度，另一方面能够促使出口福利空间溢出，增强贸易区位劣势地区对劳动力迁移的吸引力，从而对出口贸易的影响起到替代性作用。本文的研究结论揭示了交通基础设施在国际贸易的资源空间配置效应中发挥的重要作用，为当今中国统筹对外开放布局优化与国内市场一体化、推动区域经济协调发展提供了参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on historical experience of modern China’s export and railroad construction, this paper explores the comprehensive impact of international trade and transportation infrastructure on the long-term regional economic growth. The theoretical and empirical study shows that both modern export and railroad construction significantly promoted the long-term regional population growth. There was a substitution effect in the impact of modern export and railroad construction, which was stronger in areas closer to historical ports or areas connected to earlier railroads. Further analysis shows that, on the one hand, railway could improve the export participation of enterprises in the areas with disadvantages on trade; on the other hand, it could enhance the spillover of export welfare, promote labor migration to areas with disadvantages on trade, and thus form a substitution effect on the impact of export. This paper reveals the important role of transportation infrastructure in the spatial allocation of international trade, and provides policy reference for China to coordinate the optimization of the spatial pattern of opening up with domestic market integration, and promote the coordinative development of regional economy.更多还原