【摘要】 随着电动公交车渗透率的增加，对其进行充电负荷建模及其调节潜力研究愈发具有现实意义。由此，提出一种基于数据模型双驱动的电动公交车多时段负荷建模和调节潜力评估方法。首先通过分析电动公交车负荷特性影响因素，按运营情况对电动公交车进行分类，进而提出时段划分依据。其次基于历史数据确定拟合函数模型，并结合电动公交车多时段充电特性确定负荷模型的各个参数，建立电动公交车多时段负荷解析模型。然后综合考虑电网侧和用户侧的需求约束，分析各时段可参与调节车辆数量变化情况，提出多时段调节潜力解析评估模型。最后结合某地电动公交车的历史实际数据进行实例验证。结果表明所提负荷建模及调节潜力评估方法具有较强的适用性和有效性，为电网削峰填谷提供了有力支撑。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the increase of the penetration rate of electric buses, it is more and more practical to study its charging load modeling and adjustable potential. Therefore, a multi-period load modeling and adjustable potential evaluation method for electric buses based on data-driven and model-driven is proposed. First, by analyzing the factors affecting the load characteristics, electric buses are classified based on their operational status, and a basis for period division is proposed. Secondly, the fitting function model is determined based on the historical data, and the parameters of the load model are determined in combination with the multi period charging characteristics of electric buses, and the multi period load analytical model of electric buses is established. Then, considering the demand constraints of the grid and user sides comprehensively, the changes in the number of electric buses that can participate in the regulation in each period are analyzed, and an analytical evaluation model of the multi-period adjustable potential is proposed. Finally, an example is verified with the actual historical data of the electric buses in a certain place. The results show that the load modeling and adjustable potential evaluation method has strong applicability and effectiveness, providing strong support for grid peak shaving and valley filling.更多还原