【摘要】 为提高南疆阿拉尔垦区棉田气候变化适应能力，本研究选取1990—2020年南疆阿拉尔垦区棉花物候期及同期地面气象数据，综合运用最小二乘法、相关性分析法、Mann-Kendall非参数突变检验和优势主导分析方法，重点分析南疆阿拉尔垦区棉花物候期动态变化及其关键气候驱动因子。结果表明，1990—2020年南疆阿拉尔垦区棉花播种期、出苗期、吐絮期和停止生长期的提前分别以平均气温升高、气温日较差增大、最低气温升高和最高气温升高影响为主，各影响因子的贡献率分别为52.39%、100.00%、31.35%和100.00%；棉花现蕾期的推迟以降水量的减少影响为主，贡献率达60.55%；开花期的提前与气候变化关系不大。1990—2000年棉花现蕾期和开花期的推迟分别以降水量的减少和气温日较差的减小影响为主，各影响因子的贡献率分别为57.04%和100.00%;1990—2010和2011—2020年棉花吐絮期的阶段性提前分别以平均气温和最低气温的升高影响为主，各影响因子的贡献率分别为30.89%和36.46%。本研究结果可为垦区棉田积极应对与适应气候变化提供理论依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The study aimed to improve the climate change adaptation ability of cotton field in Alar reclamation area of southern Xinjiang. This research selected the cotton phenological period and the corresponding period surface meteorological data to analyze the dynamic changes of cotton phenological period and their key climate driving factors in Alar reclamation area of southern Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020. To reach this aim, the least square method, correlation analysis method, Mann-Kendall nonparametric mutation test and dominance analysis method were used for analysis. Results showed that the advances of cotton sowing date, seedling stage, boll opening stage and stop growth period were mainly controlled by the increasing of average temperature, daily range temperature, minimum temperature and maximum temperature, respectively, with the contribution rates of 52. 39%, 100. 00%, 31. 35% and 100. 00%. In addition, the delaying of cotton budding stage was mainly influenced by the decreased precipitation with a contribution rate of 60. 55%, while the advance of flowering time related little to climate change. The delaying of squaring stage and flowering stage was mainly dominated by the decreased precipitation and diurnal temperature range from 1990 to 2000, with the contribution rates of 57. 04% and 100. 00%, respectively. The advance of cotton boll opening period from 1990 to 2010 and from 2011 to 2020 were mainly controlled by the increased average temperature and minimum temperature, with the contribution rates of 30. 89% and 36. 46%, respectively. Overall, our results provided some theoretical basis on cotton yield to cope with and adapt to climate change in Alar reclamation area.更多还原