【摘要】 目的 探讨2016—2020年镇江地区大气PM_2.5中金属及类金属元素的含量变化和健康风险。方法 在2016年1月至2020年12月期间收集423个PM_2.5样品。采用电感耦合等离子体质谱法分析铝（Al）、锰（Mn）、镍（Ni）、铬（Cr）、砷（As）、镉（Cd）、锑（Sb）、汞（Hg）、铅（Pb）、硒（Se）和铊（Tl）等11种元素含量。基于水晶球模型，使用蒙特卡洛不确定性分析动态评估其健康风险。结果 监测期间，PM_2.5平均浓度为（57.7±30.8）μg/m³，呈逐年下降趋势，季节分布变化显著。PM_2.5样品中11种元素的浓度为（0.18±0.15）μg/m³，其中Al含量最高。经过10 000次模拟，11种元素的总危害商数平均值为0.809 6，平均致癌风险为1.68×10^-5，存在一定的致癌风险。结论 本次调查的镇江地区近年来空气质量有所改善，但应重视元素Al和As的健康风险。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To understand the changes and health risks of metal and metalloid elements in PM_2.5in Zhenjiang area from 2016 to 2020.Methods In the present study,423 PM_2.5samples were collected from January 2016 to December 2020,eleven elements,including Al,Mn,Ni,Cr,As,Cd,Sb,Hg,Pb,Se and Tl,were analyzed by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry and based on the Crystal Ball model,the health risks were assessed dynamically using Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis.Results The mean PM_2.5level was（57.7±30.8）μg/m³,with a tendency of yearly decreasing and a significant seasonal distribution variation.The concentration of 11 elements in the PM_2.5samples was （0.18±0.15）μg/m³.Al was the highest element After 10 000 simulations,the mean value of the hazard index for eleven elements was 0.809 6.The average carcinogenic risk was 1.68×10^-5,which indicated that the non-carcinogenic risk could be ignored and there was certain carcinogenic risk.Conclusion Considerable attention should be paid to the potential health risks associated with long-term Al and As exposure.This study provides detailed data on local atmospheric pollution characteristics,which found that the air quality had been improved in recent years.更多还原