【摘要】 基于考虑系统负荷、新能源发电出力等时序变化特性的时序生产模拟法，建立了水光电力系统时序生产模拟模型；从系统结构性、经济性、灵活性与可靠性方面综合确定最佳水光容量配比，并通过金沙江上游川藏段水光系统验证了模型的合理性。金沙江上游川藏段光伏电站与水电站出力具有较好的年内、日内互补特性；对于2030年水平年，考虑枯期水电留存，913.6万kW水电配套400万kW光伏的方案综合性能更优，其新增非水可再生电量约60亿kW·h。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the time-series production simulation method which takes into account the time-series variation characteristics of system load and power generation output of new energy, the time-series production simulation model of hydro-optical power system is established. The optimal water-light capacity ratio is determined comprehensively from the aspects of system structure, economy, flexibility and reliability, and the rationality of the model is verified by the water-light system of the upper reaches of the Jinsha River in the Sichuan-Tibet section. The outputs of photovoltaic power stations and hydropower stations in the upper reaches of the Jinsha River are complementary within a year and within a day. For the level year of 2030, considering the retention of hydropower during dry period, the comprehensive performance of 9.136 million kW hydropower with 4 million kW photovoltaic is better, and the new non-water renewable electricity is about 6 billion kW·h.更多还原