【摘要】 随着马铃薯主粮化战略的不断推进，世界及中国的马铃薯及其制品供求局势发生了重要转变。为进一步明确世界及中国马铃薯及其制品供求局势的变化特征，为其未来供求局势预测提供数据参考，采用几何平均等数据描述方法，对世界及中国马铃薯生产及需求变化进行定量分析。数据分析结果表明：第一，世界及中国马铃薯播种面积、产量及单产均呈增长态势，且中国马铃薯播种面积占比不断增大，已成为世界马铃薯产量最大的国家，但其单产水平始终低于世界平均水平。第二，世界马铃薯及其制品国际贸易规模不断增大，马铃薯贸易占世界农产品贸易的比重较为稳定。第三，世界人均马铃薯消费量呈小幅下降趋势，但反弹增长趋势明显；中国国内马铃薯及其制品需求量不断增大，直接食用部分占比最大且持续增长，马铃薯需求不断增长，主粮化趋势凸显。因此，为适应马铃薯单产水平低与国内马铃薯消费需求刚性增长之间的矛盾，要在牢牢保障马铃薯播种面积同时增加马铃薯种植技术投入及优种培育。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the continuous promotion of the strategy of developing potato as a staple food, the supply and demand of potato and its products in the world and China has undergone important changes. The paper aimed to further clarify its changing characteristics, and to provide data reference for future supply and demand forecast. It carried out a quantitative analysis of the changes of potato production and demand in the world and China by using geometric means and other data description methods. The results of data analysis show that: First, the potato growing area, production and yield per unit in the world and China all show an increasing trend, and the proportion of potato growing area in China is constantly increasing, and China has become the country with the largest potato production in the world, but its yield per unit is always lower than the world average level. Second, the scale of international trade in potato and its products is increasing, and the proportion of potato trade in world agricultural products trade is relatively stable. Third, the per capita potato consumption in the world showed a slight downward trend, but the rebound trend was obvious. In China, the demand for potato and its products continues to increase, the proportion of unprocessed potato consumption is the largest and continues to grow, the demand for potato is growing, and the trend of view potato as staple food is increasingly prominent. Therefore, in order to solve the problems of the mismatch between the low yield per unit of potato and the rigid growth of domestic potato consumption demand, it is necessary to firmly protect the potato growing area and increase the investment in potato planting technology and superior seed cultivation.更多还原