【摘要】 利用芜湖市1988—2022年7种水稻病虫害发生及种植面积数据，国家气候中心逐月大气环流和海温指数，基于C5.0决策树算法，构建一种以大气环流和海温指数作为预报因子的水稻病虫害发生程度的长期预测模型。结果表明，该模型可较好地预测未来一年芜湖市各种水稻病虫害发生程度，2022年7种病虫害发生程度预测准确率平均为85.7%，为水稻病虫害发生程度的预测提供一种有效的实用方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the C5.0 decision tree algorithm, a long-term prediction model for the occurrence of rice diseases and pests using atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature(SST) index as predictive factors was constructed using the occurrence of seven types of rice pests and diseases and planting area data of Wuhu City from 1988 to 2022, and the monthly atmospheric circulation and SST index of National Climate Centre(NCC). The results show that these models can effectively predict the occurrence degree of various rice diseases and pests in Wuhu City in the next year. The average predicting accuracy of the occurrence degree of seven diseases and pests in 2022 is 85.7%, which provides an effective and practical method for predicting the occurrence degree of rice diseases and pests.更多还原