【摘要】 【目的】预测巴西含羞草和无刺含羞草2种入侵植物在海南省的潜在地理分布，确定2种入侵植物在海南省的入侵风险等级，为海南省入侵植物管理和防治工作提供参考。【方法】利用MaxEnt模型和GIS地理信息系统评估制约巴西含羞草和无刺含羞草的主要环境变量，模拟并划分2种入侵植物在海南省的潜在入侵地理分布；开展2种入侵植物定性定量入侵风险分析，确定其危险级别。【结果】模拟结果显示，巴西含羞草和无刺含羞草受试者工作特征曲线面积（AUC）分别为0.956和0.996，结果远高于随机预测值0.500，表明模型预测结果具有较高的可信度。模型预测结果显示，2种入侵植物在我国的适生区主要分布在南方，尤其以广东、海南、福建等省份分布最为密集；其中，在海南省的潜在适宜区域主要集中在东北部，并有向西南扩散的趋势，与实际调查结果分布区域基本吻合。纬度分布预测结果发现，巴西含羞草主要分布在北纬50°～南纬50°，无刺含羞草则主要分布在北纬10°～30°。根据风险指标体系准则层赋值，计算得出巴西含羞草风险值（R）=69.15，高于61.00，为特别危害物种；无刺含羞草R=58.00，介于29.50～61.00，为高度危害物种。【结论】巴西含羞草为特别危害物种，应严格禁止引入；无刺含羞草属于高度危害，必须严格限制引入。由于2种入侵植物已经传入我国，应采取必要的应急措施，开展检疫、监测和灭除等工作，防止其进一步扩散和造成更大的危害。更多还原

【Abstract】 【Objective】To predict the potential geographic distribution of Mimosa diplotricha C. Wright and Mimosa diplotricha var. inermis(Adelbert) Veldkamp in Hainan, and to determine the invasion risk level of the 2 invasive plants in Hainan, so as to provide reference for the management of invasive plants and control of invasive plants in Hainan.【Method】The MaxEnt model and geographic information system(GIS) were used to assess the main environmental variables governing Mimosa diplotricha C. Wright and Mimosa diplotricha var. inermis(Adelbert) Veldkamp, and to simulate and delineate the potential geographic distribution of the 2 invasive plants in Hainan; qualitative and quantitative invasion risk analyses of the 2 invasive plants were carried out to determine the level of their risk. The simulation results showed that area under a receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC) of Mimosa diplotricha C. Wright and Mimosa diplotricha var. inermis(Adelbert) Veldkamp were 0.956 and 0.996 respectively, which was much higher than the random prediction value(0.500), indicating that the prediction results of the model had high confidence. 【Result】The model prediction results showed that in China,the suitable habitats for 2 invasive plants were mainly distributed in the southern regions, particularly in provinces such as Guangdong, Hainan and Fujian. In Hainan, the potential suitable areas were mainly concentrated in the northeastern part and showed a trend of spreading towards the southwest,which was basically consistent with the distribution areas of actual survey results. According to the latitude distribution prediction results, Mimosa diplotricha C. Wright mainly distributed between 50° northern latitude and 50° southern latitude,while Mimosa diplotricha var. inermis(Adelbert) Veldkamp mainly distributed between 10° northern latitude and 30° northern latitude.Based on the risk index system criteria layer assignment, the calculated risk value R for Mimosa diplotricha C. Wright was 69.15, which was higher than 61.00, classifying it as a particularly harmful species; the risk value R for Mimosa diplotricha var. inermis(Adelbert) Veldkamp was 58.00, falling between 29.50 and 61.00, classifying it as a highly harmful species. 【Conclusion】Mimosa diplotricha C. Wright is a particularly hazardous species and its introduction should be strictly prohibited; Mimosa diplotricha var. inermis(Adelbert) Veldkamp is highly hazardous and its introduction must be strictly restricted. Since the 2 invasive plants have been introduced into China, necessary emergency measures should be taken to carry out quarantine, monitoring and eradication, to prevent them from further spreading and causing greater harm.更多还原