【摘要】 选取武汉城市圈，采用反现实法构建两种情景：反现实情景（考虑生态系统服务价值）和现实情景（不考虑生态系统服务价值）。基于2010-2018年土地利用数据，运用CA-Markov模型模拟2025年土地利用变化，以其为生态用地保护提供科学指导。结果表明，（1）2018-2025年，反现实情景和现实情景下建设用地规模均增加，增幅分别为3.61%和42.39%，反现实情景下耕地、林地、草地和水域向建设用地转换的面积均小于现实情景。（2）2025年反现实情景下闲置建设用地复垦为生态用地的规模约为现实情景的1.72倍。（3）现实情景下，林地、草地、水域表现为向耕地的过度转换，不利于生态安全，而反现实情景更能同时确保粮食安全与生态安全。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to provide scientific guidance for the protection of ecological land, this paper selected the Wuhan City Circle as the research object, and constructedan counterfactual scenario considering the value of ecosystem services and a realistic scenario without considering the value of ecosystem services in the economic decision-making of land use conversion based on the counterfactual method. Based on the land use data from 2010 to2018, the CA-Markov model was used to simulate land use change in 2025. The results show that,(1) from 2018 to 2025, the scale of construction land under both the counterfactual scenario and the reality scenario will increase, with an increase of 3.61%and 42.39% respectively. Under the counterfactual scenario, the area of conversion of arable land, forest land, grassland and water area to construction landare smaller than that ofin the realistic scenario.(2) In 2025, the scale of reclamation of idle construction land into ecological land under the counterfactual scenario is about1.72 times that of the realistic scenario.(3) In the realistic scenario,the excessive conversion of forest land, grassland and water area to arable land is not conducive to ecological security, while the counterfactual scenario can ensure food security and ecological security at the same time.更多还原