【摘要】 全面落实大规模留抵退税对提振市场主体信心、激发投资活力以及提升企业产业链供应链韧性和安全水平具有重要影响。本文以我国大规模留抵退税改革为背景，基于微观企业增值税购销发票数据，运用双重差分方法考察了增值税留抵退税这一重要战略举措对企业产业链扩张的影响。研究发现，留抵退税改革能够增强企业后向产业链关联和前向产业链关联，对企业产业链扩张具有显著促进作用。机制检验表明，留抵退税改革通过缓解企业融资约束状况、促进企业投资，增强了产业链的纵向联系，有利于推动上中下游企业融通发展。异质性分析发现，对于大规模企业、非国有企业、高税负企业以及制造业企业，留抵退税改革的产业链扩张效应更为突出。本文不仅从财政与产业政策协同发展视角拓展了“减税降费”的产业发展效应研究，还为进一步优化完善增值税制度以及深化供给侧结构性改革提供了重要经验证据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The comprehensive implementation of large-scale Value-Added Tax(VAT) credit refund plays a significant role in bolstering market confidence, stimulating investment vitality, and enhancing the resilience and security of enterprises′ industrial and supply chains. In this paper, under the background of the reform of large-scale VAT credit refund, we study the impacts of VAT credit refund reform on the expansion of enterprises′ industrial chain by using the difference-in-difference method as well as the data of VAT invoices purchased and sold by enterprises. The conclusion is that the reform of VAT credit refund can significantly enhance the backward and forward industrial chain linkages of enterprises, significantly promoting the expansion of enterprise′s industrial chain. The mechanism test shows that the reform of VAT credit refund can enhance the vertical linkage of the industrial chain by easing the financing constraints and promoting the investment of enterprises. It is conducive to promote the integrated development of upper, middle and downstream enterprises. The results of heterogeneity analysis indicate that the industrial chain linkage promotion effects of the VAT credit refund reform are more prominent for large-scale enterprises, non-state-owned enterprises, enterprises with high tax burden and manufacturing enterprises. This paper can not only expand the research on the industrial development effects of "tax and fee reductions" from the perspective of coordinated development of fiscal and industrial policies, but also provide important empirical evidence for further optimizing the VAT system and better deepening the supply-side structural reform.更多还原