【摘要】 财政可持续性关系到财政安全、政府职能履行和国家发展战略目标的实现。本文结合中国财政制度特点和经济社会核心问题，突破单一的政府债务可持续性分析框架的局限性，建立分析中国财政可持续性的狭义和广义框架，并在此基础上进一步提出财政可持续性综合判断框架，使其兼容狭义与广义财政可持续性分析，兼顾历史判断与未来预测，同时采用多种方法检验中国狭义与广义财政可持续性。研究发现：在狭义财政可持续性判断中，债务指标法、财政收支协整法、财政反应函数法检验结果均显示政府债务具有可持续性，但债务空间在缩小；在广义财政可持续性判断中，动态随机一般均衡法结果表明，财政大规模减收增支、经济增速持续放缓、人口老龄化程度加深和激进式绿色转型会对财政可持续性造成压力，我们进一步探讨了其中的作用机制。对此，本文结合研究结论，提出增强财政可持续性的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The fiscal sustainability is intricately tied to fiscal security,the effectiveness of government functions,and the attainment of national development strategic objectives.Incorporating the specific attributes of China’s fiscal regime and its fundamental economic and social challenges,this paper transcends the limitations of a single government debt sustainability assessment framework.This paper introduces a dual framework,encompassing both narrow and broad perspectives,for evaluating China’s fiscal sustainability.On this basis,we present an all-encompassing assessment framework for fiscal sustainability,which harmoniously accommodates both narrow and broad analyses of fiscal sustainability,while also considering historical assessments and future predictions.Moreover,we utilize a wide range of methodologies to evaluate China’s fiscal sustainability from both narrow and broad perspectives.The study reveals that in the narrow fiscal sustainability assessment,the indicator method,integration method,and fiscal reaction function method all indicate the sustainability of government debt,however,the available fiscal space of debt is diminishing.In the broad fiscal sustainability assessment,the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium method points to the potential challenges,and further delves into the underlying mechanisms.Large-scale fiscal reductions in revenue and increases in expenditure,continuous economic growth slowdown,deepening demographic aging trend,and radical green transition,will exert pressure on fiscal sustainability.Consequently,this paper puts forward a series of fiscal reform proposals aimed at enhancing fiscal sustainability.更多还原