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2011—2020年汕头市登革热流行特征及时空聚集性分析

Analysis of the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of dengue fever in Shantou City,2011-2020

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【作者】 陈耿娜李伟南姚丽君张驰张志华张旭彬蔡子熙

【Author】 CHEN Gengna;LI Weinan;YAO Lijun;ZHANG Chi;ZHANG Zhihua;ZHANG Xubin;CAI Zixi;Shantou Center for Disease Control and Prevention;

【通讯作者】 蔡子熙;

【机构】 汕头市疾病预防控制中心

【摘要】 目的 分析2011—2020年汕头市登革热流行特征及时空分布特征,为制定精准防控策略提供参考依据。方法 收集2011—2020年汕头市登革热疫情资料,采用描述流行病学、空间自相关分析及时空扫描统计量等方法对登革热发病情况进行分析。结果 2011—2020年汕头市累计报告登革热病例1 271例,年平均发病率为2.23/10万,其中本地病例1 153例(占90.72%)。全市7个县区均有登革热病例报告,本地病例数与输入病例数呈正相关(r_s=0.83,P<0.05)。空间自相关分析结果显示,汕头市登革热本地病例在2014年和2019年呈显著空间聚集性,共扫描到16个“热点”区域,无“冷点”区域。时空扫描分析共探测到4个本地病例聚集区:Ⅰ类聚集区为涉及金平区和龙湖区的17个街道(镇),聚集时间为2019年7—9月;其余3个聚集区分布在潮南区2个、潮阳区1个。结论 汕头市登革热疫情存在明显的时空聚集性,本地病例和输入病例在聚集空间和时间存在相关性,应重点在流行季节前和在高发街道(镇)采取针对性防控措施。

【Abstract】 Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution features of dengue fever in Shantou City from 2011 to 2020,to provide a reference basis for formulating precise prevention and control strategies. Methods Data on dengue fever outbreaks in Shantou City from 2011 to 2020 were collected. Descriptive epidemiology,spatial autocorrelation analysis,and spatiotemporal scan statistic were used to analyze the patterns of dengue fever. Results From 2011 to 2020,a total of 1 271 cases of dengue fever were reported in Shantou City,with an average annual incidence rate of 2.23/100 000. Among them,there were 1 153 local cases(90.72%). Dengue fever cases were reported in all seven districts of Shantou City,and the number of local cases was positively correlated with the number of imported cases(r_s=0.83,P<0.05). The results of spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated that the local cases showed significant spatial clustering in 2014 and 2019,16 "hot spot" areas were identified,with no "cold spot" areas in the city. A total of four local case cluster areas were detected by spatiotemporal scanning:the first type of cluster area involving 17streets(towns) in Jinping District and Longhu District,with the clustering period from July to September 2019;the other three cluster areas were distributed in Chaonan District(two) and Chaoyang District(one). Conclusions The dengue fever epidemic in Shantou City has obvious spatiotemporal clustering characteristics,with a correlation between local cases and imported cases in terms of spatial and temporal clustering. Targeted prevention and control measures should be taken before the epidemic season and in high-incidence streets(towns).

【基金】 汕头市科技计划医疗卫生类别项目(200605145266880)
  • 【文献出处】 华南预防医学 ,South China Journal of Preventive Medicine , 编辑部邮箱 ,2024年08期
  • 【分类号】R181.3;R512.8
  • 【下载频次】33
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