【摘要】 利用广东74个国家气象观测站1964—2023年2—4月逐日平均气温资料、日照时数资料，采用线性倾向估计、M-K突变检验、小波分析等方法，对近60年来低温阴雨天气的时空变化特征进行分析。结果表明：广东低温阴雨平均总日数、各等级低温阴雨日数呈西北多南部少的分布特征；北部低温阴雨结束时间迟。广东低温阴雨日数呈减少趋势，年际、年代际波动明显；低温阴雨总日数、重度日数减少及终日提前趋势显著；低温阴雨轻度日数、中度日数下降趋势不显著。区域低温阴雨的总日数、重度日数呈减少趋势；终日呈提前趋势，轻度和中度日数变化趋势不显著。低温阴雨总日数和轻度、重度日数存在准28年的显著周期震荡；中度低温阴雨日数具有准14年的显著周期震荡；终日具有准24年的显著周期震荡。广东低温阴雨总日数、轻度日数及终日在2017年前后发生日数减少和终日提前的突变；低温阴雨重度日数在2002年发生日数减少的突变；低温阴雨中度日数没有突变发生。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using the daily data of average temperature and sunshine duration for 74 national meteorological observation stations in Guangdong from 1964 to 2023, the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of low temperature and rainy(to be referred to as “LT＿R” hereafter) weather in the past 60 years were analyzed by the methods of linear tendency estimation, Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis. The results are shown as follows. In Guangdong, the average total number of LT＿R days and the number of LT＿R days of all grades are more in the northwest and less in the south; the ending date of LT＿R weather in the north is late. The number of LT＿R days in Guangdong is decreasing, with obvious interannual and interdecadal fluctuations; the total number of LT＿R days and the number of severe LT＿R days tend to decrease significantly, and while the ending date of LT＿R days tends to advance significantly, the numbers of mild and moderate LT＿R days show an insignificant falling trend. The total numbers of regional LT＿R days and severe LT＿R days show a decreasing trend; the ending date of LT＿R days is advancing, and the changing trend of mild and moderate LT＿R days is not significant. The total numbers of LT＿R days and the numbers of mild and severe LT＿R days have significant periodic oscillations of quasi-28 years; the number of moderate LT＿R days has significant oscillations of quasi-14 years; the ending date of LT＿R days has significant oscillations of quasi-24 years. In Guangdong, the total number of LT＿R days and the number of mild LT＿R days decreased abruptly around 2017, and the ending date of LT＿R days advanced around that year; the number of LT＿R days decreased abruptly in 2002; no abrupt change occurred in the number of moderate LT＿R days.更多还原