【摘要】 为更加全面地对火后泥石流致灾因素进行定性分析，达到灾害防控目的，基于复杂网络理论，通过梳理既有的致灾机理研究，萃取了包含致灾因素和过程事件在内的39个节点，建立了火后泥石流触发网络。随后，基于有向网络的结构特点拓展了综合度的概念，并通过综合出(入)度、中介中心性、连边脆弱度3项复杂网络拓扑特征提出了节点风险扩散度指标(NRD)用于评估网络中的关键节点。最后，以3种攻击方式针对PDFTN,对比该网络的连通度变化，以验证NRD识别结果的有效性。结果表明：NRD能够有效识别出有向网络中的关键节点，其中NRD识别出的火后泥石流关键致灾因素为地表径流，该结果与现有研究结论一致。因此，致灾因素对火后泥石流灾害结果的影响可以通过本文提出的NRD指标进行有效表征，从而为火后泥石流灾害防控提供辅助决策依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Firstly,in order to comprehensively analyze the disaster-causing factors of post-fire debris flows and realize disaster prevention and control,based on the complex network theory,we extracted 39 nodes,including triggering factors and process events,and established the Post-fire Debris Flow Triggering Network(PDFTN) by reviewing existing researches on disastercausing mechanisms.Secondly,the concept of comprehensive degree was expanded based on the structure characteristics of directed networks,and the Node Risk Diffusion(NRD)index was proposed to evaluate key nodes in the PDFTN by integrating three complex network topological characteristics of outdegree(indegree),betweenness centrality,and vulnerability of the edge.Finally,the connectivity of PDFTN were compared by three attack methods to validate the effectiveness of the NRD identification.As the results show,NRD can effectively identify the critical nodes in the directed network,and the key disastercausing factor of post-fire debris flow identified by NRD is surface runoff,whose is consistent with the current conclusions.Therefore,the impact of disaster-causing factors on the post-fire debris flows can be effectively characterized by the NRD indicators proposed in this paper.So the study in this paper could provide auxiliary decision-making support for the prevention and control of post-fire debris flow disasters.更多还原