【摘要】 基于近年来预应力钢筒混凝土管(PCCP)在城市供水和大型输水工程中得到广泛应用，但PCCP管道直径大、输送压力高，复杂的环境和运行因素增加了其失效风险，为了建立一个科学的风险评价体系，在全面识别物理、环境和运行风险因素基础上，提出一种PCCP风险综合评价的量化分析模型。该模型在层次分析法的基础上，通过对传统的评分指标体系法进行改进，综合设计参数、结构灾变、土壤腐蚀等情况，结合事故后果评价准则，对PCCP运行风险进行定量评估，并以某实际输水工程干线为对象进行风险综合评价。结果表明：高权重风险因素是影响管道运行安全的重要因素。评价模型可以通过其评价结果对管道运行状态进行预测，可为实际工程风险管理提供依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, the rapid development and widespread application of Prestressed Concrete Cylinder Pipe(PCCP) in urban water supply and transmission projects have been notable. However, the large diameter, high transmission pressure, and complex environmental and operational conditions associated with PCCP pipelines elevate the risk of failure, underscoring the necessity for a robust, scientific risk assessment framework. This research introduces a quantitative analysis model for the comprehensive evaluation of PCCP risks, based on a thorough identification of physical, environmental, and operational risk factors. By refining the traditional scoring index system through the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP), the model integrates design parameters, structural integrity, and soil corrosivity, alongside an assessment of potential accident consequences. A case study on a water transmission trunk line demonstrates the model’s utility. The results show that High-weight risk factors are important factors affecting pipeline operation safety. The evaluation model can predict the pipeline operation status by its results, which provides a basis for the actual engineering risk management.更多还原