【摘要】 新疆稀缺的森林资源承担着重要的生态服务功能，林火作为森林生态系统中重要的干扰因子，与当前全球变暖关系密切，明确全球变暖对新疆森林火灾的影响及二者关系对于保护新疆森林资源及生态具有重要意义。本研究选取新疆维吾尔自治区1988～2020年森林火灾数据及气候数据，对二者采用M-K检验、距平分析法、异常度分析法和相关性分析后发现，1988～2020年期间新疆森林覆盖区域气候显著变暖，生长季及夏季气温影响当年森林火灾，而4月降水与6月气温变化对第二年火灾产生重要影响，气候变化改变燃料湿度、堆积量等燃料条件可能为导致这一现象发生的主要原因。这一研究为全球变暖下新疆林火预警提供重要参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 The limited expanse of forest resources in Xinjiang plays a pivotal role in delivering essential ecological services. Forest fires, acting as a significant perturbing agent within this ecosystem, are intricately entwined with the ongoing phenomenon of global warming. Unraveling the impact of global warming on forest fires in Xinjiang and discerning the intricate relationship between these phenomena assumes paramount importance in safeguarding the region’s forest resources and ecological balance. This study meticulously selected forest fire and climate datasets spanning from 1988 to 2020 in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. Employing a battery of analytical tools encompassing the Mann-Kendall( M-K) test, anomaly analysis, percentage anomaly method and correlation analysis, the investigation delved into the nexus between climate patterns and forest fires. The findings herein proffer compelling evidence of an unequivocal climate shift towards heightened warmth across Xinjiang’s forest-clad domains. Furthermore, it emerges that the growing season and summertime temperatures exert synchronous influences on forest fire occurrences within the same annum. Equally noteworthy, variations in April precipitation and June temperatures wield a salient influence over fire events in the subsequent year. This phenomenon can be attributed to alterations in fuel conditions, encompassing changes in fuel humidity and accumulation quantities resulting from climate shifts. Notably, these insights serve as a pivotal reference point for enhancing forest fire preparedness and warning systems in Xinjiang amidst the inexorable march of global warming.更多还原