【摘要】 沙戈荒新能源基地需要采用远距离高压交直流输电将清洁电能送往负荷中心，准确高效地评估交直流混合输电系统最大传输能力（total transfer capability, TTC）对系统安全规划和促进新能源消纳具有指导意义。为此，提出一种考虑新能源出力不确定性的沙戈荒交直流外送系统最大输电能力评估方法。首先，采用拉丁超立方抽样构建风电出力的不确定模型并基于改进的K-means聚类法生成典型场景集；其次，建立交直流混合系统的概率连续潮流迭代算法模型，引入直流功率的影响因子以加快潮流收敛速度并提高计算的准确性；然后，构建计及风电出力不确定性的沙戈荒新能源基地交直流混合外送系统TTC计算模型，实现交直流混合系统准确、快速的TTC评估。最后，采用修改的IEEE 39节点系统进行算例分析，验证了所提方法在新能源出力不确定情景下可保证TTC评估的准确性和时效性，为提高沙戈荒大规模新能源基地经交直流混合外送系统的安全、稳定性提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 New desert energy bases require long-distance high-voltage direct current(HVDC) to send clean power to load centers. Accurate and efficient evaluation of the total transfer capability(TTC) of AC-DC hybrid transmission systems is significant for system security planning and promoting new energy consumption. To this end, this study proposes a method for evaluating the maximum transmission capacity of the AC-DC outgoing transmission systems of new desert energy bases, considering the uncertainty of the new energy output. First, Latin hypercube sampling was used to construct an uncertainty model of wind power output, and a typical scenario set was generated based on the improved Kmeans clustering method. Second, a probabilistic continuous power flow iteration algorithm model of the AC-DC hybrid system was established. The influence factor of DC power was introduced to accelerate the convergence of the power flow and improve the accuracy of the calculation. Finally, a TTC calculation model of the AC-DC hybrid delivery system for a new desert energy base is constructed, which considers the uncertainty of wind power output and achieves accurate and fast TTC evaluation of the AC-DC hybrid system. The modified IEEE39-node system is used for example analysis, which verifies that the proposed method can guarantee the accuracy and timeliness of TTC evaluation under uncertain scenarios of new energy output and provides a reference for improving the safety and stability of the AC-DC hybrid delivery system of a large-scale new energy base.更多还原