【摘要】 产业间的关联互动是区域经济发展的关键，同时会带来碳排放的增加。基于生产性服务业对中间品供需及高科技信息承载的贡献程度，将其划分为生产服务业和创新服务业，研究这两类服务业对制造业的关联分别对减少碳排放的影响机制，并从产业间供需关系出发，进一步研究这两类服务业对制造业关联的前向情形和后向情形分别对碳排放的影响。研究发现，首先，生产服务业对制造业关联度与碳排放之间呈倒N型关系，创新服务业对制造业关联度与碳排放之间呈U型关系。其次，能源消费规模会抑制产业关联对碳减排的促进作用，能源消费结构的优化有助于增强产业关联对碳减排的促进作用。结合考虑产业间供需关系，在生产服务业对制造业的前向关联与碳排放关系中，能源消费规模和消费结构的中介抑制作用均较弱；在创新服务业对制造业的后向关联与碳排放关系中，能源消费结构的抑制作用也较弱。据此，从推进多元服务业协同发展方面提出尽早达到“碳排放”拐点的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Inter-industrial correlation is the key to regional economic development, and will bring about an increase in carbon emissions.Based on the contribution to high-tech information bearing and the supply and demand of intermediate goods, the producer service industry is divided into production service industry and innovative service industry. The effecting mechanism of the correlation between two types of service industry and manufacturing industry on carbon emission reduction is studied. And then, starting from the relationship between inter-industry supply and demand, the forward and backward impacts of these two types of service industries on the carbon emissions are further studied. It is found that, first of all, the correlation of production service industry and manufacturing industry and carbon emissions presents an inverted N-shaped relationship, while the correlation between innovation service industry and manufacturing industry and carbon emissions presents a U-shaped relationship. Secondly, the scale of energy consumption can inhibit the promoting effect of industry correlation on carbon emission reduction, and the structure of it will strengthen the promoting effect of industry correlation on carbon emission reduction. Considering the inter-industry supply and demand relationship, in the relationship between the forward correlation of production service industry and manufacturing industry and carbon emission, the inhibition of energy consumption scale and consumption structure is weaker. In the relationship between the backward correlation of innovative service industry and manufacturing industry and carbon emission, the inhibition of energy consumption structure is also weaker. Therefore, relevant policy suggestions are put forward to reach the turning point of carbon emissions as soon as possible in terms of promoting the coordinated development of diversified service industries.更多还原