【摘要】 目的 了解广东省手足口病时空分异规律及其影响因素，为广东省手足口病防控提供科学参考依据。方法 收集2008至2018年广东省手足口病发病数据，采用空间自相关分析、新兴时空热点分析、标准差椭圆等空间统计方法以及Spearman相关性分析等方法，对广东省手足口病的时空分异规律及其影响因素进行研究。结果 2008至2014年广东省手足口病发病数持续增多，但2015至2018年有下降的趋势。2008至2018年广东省手足口病发病数存在双高峰的规律，且存在显著的空间聚集，病例集中分布在以珠江三角洲为中心的东北-西南方向走向的区域中，呈现据中心距离逐渐减少的特征，粤东、粤西、粤北地区病例较少。连续的热点主要分布在深圳沿海地区，振荡的热点集中出现在珠江三角洲地区及其邻近区域，持续的冷点集中出现在粤东地区，而分散的冷点在粤东和粤西地区均有分布。Spearman相关性分析结果显示，广东省手足口病发病率与年均最高气温存在较弱的负相关（r_s=-0.227），与年均降水量（r_s=0.418）、常住人口密度（r_s=0.236）、地区生产总值（r_s=0.374）存在正相关。结论 2008至2018年广东省手足口病发病数先增多后波动下降，但该地手足口病疫情依旧严峻，空间分布存在较显著的空间自相关，呈集聚分布，应加大重点地区防控力度，以防止手足口病暴发。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective T2o understand the spatio-temporal differentiation of HFMD in Guangdong Province and its influencing factors, and provide scientific reference for prevention and control of HFMD in Guangdong Province. Methods This paper collected the incidence data of HFMD in Guangdong Province from 2008 to 2018. Spatial autocorrelation analysis, emerging spatio-temporal hotspot analysis, standard deviation ellipse and Spearman correlation analysis were used to study the spatiotemporal differentiation of HFMD and its influencing factors in Guangdong Province. Results The number of HFMD cases in Guangdong Province continued to increase from 2008 to 2014, and showed a downward trend from 2015 to 2018. From 2008 to 2018, the incidence of HFMD in Guangdong Province showed a double peak pattern and a significant spatial aggregation. Cases were concentrated in the northeast-southwest oriented region centered on the Pearl River Delta, and showed a gradual decrease in distance from the center, with fewer cases in the eastern, western and northern regions of Guangdong. Consecutive hot spot were mainly located in the coastal area of Shenzhen, oscillating hot spots were concentrated in the Pearl River Delta and its adjacent areas, persistent cold spot were concentrated in the eastern part of Guangdong, and persistent cold spot were distributed in both the eastern and western parts of Guangdong Spearman correlation analysis showed that the incidence of HFMD in Guangdong Province was negatively correlated with the average annual maximum temperature(rs=-0.227), the average annual precipitation(rs=0.418)and the resident population density(rs=0.236) and gross regional product(rs=0.374) were positively correlated. Conclusion From 2008 to 2018, the number of HFMD cases in Guangdong Province increased first and then fluctuating declined, but the epidemic situation of HFMD in Guangdong Province is still serious. On the whole, the spatial differentiation is significant, and the prevention and control efforts should be strengthened in key areas to prevent the outbreak of HFMD.更多还原