【摘要】 常规公交站点是城市公交系统的重要组成部分，以往研究重在发现站点设计模式与运行效率之间的关系，对于设计模式与交通事故的关系缺乏实证性研究。为揭示设计要素与交通事故的关系及其异质性特征，以某市44条公交线路的1 176个公交站点为研究对象，以站点2年内事故总数为因变量，以设计模式特征、建成环境特征、交通设施特征等影响因素为自变量；运用皮尔逊和斯皮尔曼相关系数法进行变量筛选，在此基础上构建地理加权负二项回归模型及对比模型。建模结果表明：地理加权负二项回归模型表现优于对比模型，进一步分析发现，港湾式公交站与非港湾站点相比明显降低了事故发生率；公交车-非机动车分行与混行条件相比事故率也有显著降低；车道数多的站点事故较少；而其他设计要素与事故数之间的关系则未能通过数据验证。此外，建成环境对站点交通事故也具有影响，距地铁和中央商务区距离越近事故率越高。模型也揭示了影响关系的空间异质性，在人口相对较少、交通设施不完善的区域设置港湾公交车站形式带来的降低事故率作用更为明显。更多还原

【Abstract】 Regular bus stops are an important part of the urban public transport system. Discovering the relationship between station design patterns and operational efficiency was focused on in previous studies, and empirical research on the relationship between design patterns and traffic accidents was lacked. In order to reveal the relationship between design elements and traffic accidents as well as their heterogeneity characteristics, 1176 bus stops of 44 bus lines in a city were taken as the research object, the total number of accidents at the stops in two years was taken as the dependent variable, and design mode characteristics, built environment characteristics, traffic facilities characteristics and other influencing factors were taken as independent variables. Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficient methods were used to screen variables, and on this basis, a geographically weighted negative binomial regression model and a comparison model were constructed. The modeling results show that the performance of the geographically weighted negative binomial regression model is better than that of the comparison model. Further analysis shows that compared with the non-harbor bus stops, the harbor-style bus stops significantly reduce the accident rate; the accident rate of lanes separating bus and non-motorized vehicle is significantly reduced compared with mixed traffic conditions and the station with more lanes has fewer accidents. However, the relationship between other design elements and the number of accidents has not been validated through data validation. In addition, the built environment also has an impact on traffic accidents at stops. The closer to the subway and the CBD, the higher the accident rate. The model also reveals the spatial heterogeneity of the impact relationship. The setting of harbor-style bus stops in areas with relatively small population and inadequate transportation facilities has a more significant effect on reducing accident rates.更多还原