【摘要】 氧化亚氮（N₂O）是继二氧化碳（CO₂）和甲烷（CH₄）之后的全球第三大温室气体，地区的农业集约化发展和城镇化推进会加剧N₂O排放。基于此选取三峡库区为典型地区，利用IPCC排放因子法和情景分析法对三峡库区N₂O时空分布差异及减排潜力进行研究。结果表明：（1）三峡库区2006年～2019年N₂O排放量维持在1.47～1.62万t,总体趋势呈先升高后降低且库区内18个区县间差异性较为显著（P<0.01）,空间分布具有随机性（14年年均Moran I≈0）。（2）三峡库区农业活动是三峡库区N₂O最主要的来源，而化肥施用量和粪便排放量是库区农业N₂O最大来源，占比为40.48%和23.84%。利用STIRPAT模型发现N₂O驱动因素中，城镇化率对三峡库区有控制作用，促进因子从小到大依次为粮食产量、乡村从业人数、第一产业增值和人均GDP。（3）利用情景分析法在3种减排情景下对三峡库区2030年N₂O排放量进行预测，预测值分别为1.55、1.34和1.21万t。针对三峡库区N₂O排放情况和未来预测情况，建议从库区腹部地带着手，控制农田氮肥施用量和加强畜禽粪便管理，建立种养结合新农业模式，探索减排过程中的土壤内部循环机理，多方面联合控制N₂O的排放。更多还原

【Abstract】 Nitrous oxide（N₂O） is the world’s third largest greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide（CO₂） and methane（CH₄） and is increasing year by year. The intensive development of agriculture and the advancement of urbanization in the Three Gorges reservoir area will also exacerbate N₂O emissions. In order to understand the emission of N₂O in the reservoir area and make suggestions for the low-carbon development.This study used the IPCC emission factor method and scenario analysis method to study the differences in N₂O spatio-temporal distribution and to explore the emission reduction potential in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.The results showed:（1） N₂O emissions in the Three Gorges reservoir area remained at 14 700-16 200 t in 2006～2019. The overall emission trend was first higher and then decreased. The difference between 18 districts and counties in the reservoir area was significant（P<0.01）, and the spatial distribution was random（annual average Moran I≈0 in the past 14 years）.（2） Agricultural activities in the Three Gorges reservoir area were the main sources of N₂O, while fertilizer application and fecal emissions contributed the most to N₂O, accounting for 40.48% and 23.84%, respectively. By application of the STIRPAT model, it was found that among the driving factors of N₂O emissions, the urbanization rate had constraining effects in the Three Gorges reservoir area, and the promotion factors from small to large were the grain output, the number of rural employees, the value-added of the primary industry and the per capita GDP.（3） The N₂O emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area in 2030 were predicted under three emission reduction scenarios. The forecast values were 15 500, 13 400 and 12 100 t, respectively.In view of the N₂O emissions and future predictions in the Three Gorges reservoir area, it was recommended that the amount of nitrogen fertilizer applied in farmland be controlled, and the management of livestock and poultry manure be strengthened, in the hinterland of the reservoir area. It was also suggested that a new agricultural mode be established. The circulation mechanism in the process of emission reduction should be further explored. Joint efforts should be considered in the future to control N₂O emissions.更多还原