【摘要】 人工智能是驱动我国经济发展和产业变革的重要引擎,深刻影响着劳动力要素的空间流向与配置机制。采用2014—2018年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据和国际机器人联合会工业机器人数据,分析人工智能对劳动力空间流动的影响。实证结果表明:从全国范围来看,人工智能发展对劳动力迁出率具有显著正向影响,且对低学历水平劳动力的影响最大。分地区来看,东、中、西部地区均受到替代效应的影响,但东北部地区则获得了由人工智能挤出的劳动力流动入。机制分析发现,转移支付及医疗保险在不同程度上具有调节效应,能够抑制人工智能对劳动力迁出的影响。最后,在对人工智能投资扩张的背景下,揭示了人工智能技术发展进程中的“索洛悖论”,发现新技术需发展至一定水平才能破解悖论,实现人力资本的空间优化配置。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using the data of China’s migrant population monitoring survey from 2014 to 2018 and the industrial robot data of the International Federation of Robotics,this paper analyzes the impact of artificial intelligence on the spatial mobility of labor.The empirical results show that the development of artificial intelligence has a significant positive impact on the labor emigration rate across the country,and the impact on the low-level labor force is the largest.From the point of view of subregion,the substitution effect affects the eastern and western regions,but it has the productivity effect on the northeast region.In terms of industry,AI has a productivity effect on the education industry,while it has a substitution effect on the service industry.The mechanism analysis shows that transfer payment and medical insurance have moderating effects to varying degrees,which can inhibit the substitution effect of artificial intelligence on labor force,but the moderating effect of aging is not significant.Finally,it reveals the Solow paradox in the process of artificial intelligence’s influence on labor flow,and artificial intelligence needs to develop to a certain level to solve the paradox and realize the return of human capital.更多还原