【摘要】 降雨和库水位变动是诱发大型库岸滑坡体持续变形甚至失稳的主要外在因素。针对以上两种因素联合作用下滑坡体的变形特征，本文提出一种基于多源数据的“反演-评估-融合-预警”四步式滑坡监测预警方法。该方法采用趋势项位移进行力学参数反演，有效避免了降雨、库水位变动等外在因素对反演结果的影响。同时，采用熵权值构建了反演目标函数，借此考虑了不同位置监测点对反演结果的影响程度。此外，考虑了滑坡体自身的地质条件和坡体结构对监测预警的影响，综合运用安全系数和综合变形速率构建了具有地质和力学基础的预警模型。采用本文方法对贵州三板溪水电站东岭信滑坡体进行了力学参数反演和监测预警，结果表明：该滑坡体整个监测期间的安全系数在1.25～1.70之间波动，整体状态呈下降趋势，基于安全系数的角度判断其尚处于稳定状态；综合变形速率呈现上、下波动趋势，与安全系数在变化规律上具有高度的相关性，两者可以从整体上表征该滑坡体在降雨和库水位变动联合作用下稳定性的演进过程；当前监测时刻点的综合变形速率是0.059 9,根据分级预警模型判断此滑坡体当前处于稳定变形阶段(Ⅰ级预警),与安全系数的判断结果具有一致性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Rainfall and reservoir water level variation are the main external factors that induce continuous deformation and even instability of large reservoir bank landslide. Aiming at the deformation characteristics of landslide under the combined action of the above two factors, a four-step landslide monitoring and warning method based on multi-source heterogeneous data is proposed in this study. In this method, the trend term displacement is used to invert mechanical parameters, which effectively avoids the influence of external factors such as rainfall and reservoir water level change on the inversion results. Meanwhile, the entropy weight is used to construct the inversion objective function, which takes into account the influence of monitoring points at different locations on the inversion results. In addition, the influence of the geological conditions of the slope itself and the slope structure on the monitoring and early warning is considered. Besides, considering the influence of geological conditions and slope structure on monitoring and warning, a warning model with geological and mechanical basis was established by comprehensive use of safety factor and comprehensive deformation rate. Finally, mechanical parameter inversion and monitoring and early warning are carried out for Donglingxin landslide of Sanbanxi hydropower station, Guizhou province by virtue of the proposed method in this study. The results show that the safety factor of the landslide fluctuates between 1.25 and 1.70 during the whole monitoring period, and the overall state is declining. Based on the safety factor, it is still in a stable state. The comprehensive deformation rate presents an upward and downward fluctuation trend, which is highly correlated with the variation law of the safety factor. Both of them can represent the evolution process of the stability of the landslide under the combined action of rainfall and reservoir water level. The comprehensive deformation rate of the current monitoring moment point is 0.059 9. According to the hierarchical warning model, the landslide is currently in the stable deformation stage(level I warning), which is consistent with the judgment result of the safety factor.更多还原