【摘要】 政策是加强青少年工作，促进体育强国建设的重要手段。基于扩散计量方法对新时代期间(2012—2022年)各级政府颁布的467份青少年体育政策的扩散过程进行研判。发现：青少年体育政策垂直影响和层级效应明显，扩散模式有自上而下、同级扩散和跟进扩散3种，扩散曲线呈“S”型和“R”型，扩散机制以强制、学习和模仿机制为主。与方案/计划/规划类和意见类政策相比，纲要类政策具有最高的扩散强度、扩散广度与扩散速度。基于研究结果，建议：1)细化政策的落实情况，将实施效果评价放在重要位置。2)优化政策工具使用结构，发挥政策工具的组合运用效果。3)强化政策激励机制，增强青少年体育发展的内生动力。4)深化政策协同程度，提高政策叠加效应。5)规划政策垂直扩散的最短路径，提升政策扩散广度与强度，切实保障青少年体育的高质量发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Policy serves as a pivotal means to strengthen youth initiatives and advance the construction of a leading sports nation. Based on the diffusion econometric method, this study examines the diffusion process of 467 youth sports policies issued by governments at all levels during the new era(2012—2022). It is found that the vertical and hierarchical effects of youth sports policies are evident, with three diffusion modes: top-down, lateral(or parallel) diffusion and subsequent(or following) diffusion. The diffusion curves exhibit “S”-shaped and “R”-shaped patterns, and the diffusion mechanisms are primarily driven by enforcement, learning, and imitation. Compared with program/plan/planning and opinion policies, outline policies have the highest diffusion intensity, breadth and speed. Based on the research findings, the following suggestions are proposed: 1) Refine policy implementation details and prioritize the evaluation of their effects. 2) Optimize the structure of policy tool utilization and leverage the combined effects of various policy tools. 3) Strengthen policy incentive mechanisms to enhance the endogenous driving force for the development of youth sports. 4) Deepen the degree of policy synergy to enhance the cumulative effect of policies. 5) Plan the shortest path for vertical policy diffusion to enhance the breadth and intensity of policy diffusion, thereby ensuring high-quality development of youth sports.更多还原