【摘要】 户外运动赛事大力发展的背景下，加强户外运动赛事活动的风险防控和安全管理成为重要议题，其中失温事故高发且后果严重，针对户外运动赛事失温风险进行科学评价具有现实意义。基于失温理论及国内外户外运动失温风险相关文献，析取出户外运动赛事失温风险评价初始指标，通过德尔菲法筛选和确立了户外运动赛事失温风险评价指标，并采用层次分析法计算各个指标的权重值，结果表明：一级指标中，组织管理(39.96%)和自然环境(31.79%)是主要风险评价因素；气温、湿度、风力、气象监测服务与信息共享、水体暴露程度、寒冷环境下的户外经验、通讯沟通能力、专责安全、救援、医疗的主体、工作人员失温预防与应对培训、参赛者保暖装备等二级指标应为失温风险评价监测的重点；户外运动赛事涉及的关键利益相关者中，气象服务部门是信息提供者和技术支持者，赛事组织者是风险防范决策的制定者和责任人，参赛者是信息接收者和后果承担者，主要利益相关者之间围绕风险因素协作能够预防失温风险的发生。研究结果具有拓展户外运动赛事单一事故种类研究论域和扎实赛事风险研究综合评价基础的理论意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Against the backdrop of the vigorous development of outdoor sports events, strengthening risk prevention and safety management of outdoor sports events has become an important issue. Among them, hypothermia accidents occur frequently and have serious consequences. Therefore, it is of practical significance to carry out scientific risk assessment of hypothermia in outdoor sports events. Based on the the theory of hypothermia and relevant literature on hypothermia risks in outdoor sports at home and abroad, initial indicators for hypothermia risk assessment in outdoor sports events were extracted. The Delphi method was adopted to screen and establish evaluation indicators for hypothermia risks in outdoor sports events, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) was used to calculate the weight values of each indicator.The results showed that among the first-level indicators, the organizational management(39.96%) and natural environment(31.79%) were the main risk assessment factors; secondary indicators such as temperature, humidity, wind force, meteorological monitoring services and information sharing, degree of water exposure, outdoor experience in cold environments, communication skills, dedicated safety, rescue and medical personnel, staff training in hypothermia prevention and response, and warming clothing worn by participants should be the focus of hypothermia risk monitoring for outdoor sports events. As to the main stakeholders, meteorological service departments serve as the information providers and technology supporters, event organizers are the decision-makers and responsible party for early risk prevention decisions, and competitors are the information receivers and consequences bearers. Collaboration among major stakeholders around risk factors can prevent the occurrence of hypothermia risks. This study has theoretical significance in expanding the research scope of single accident types in outdoor sports events and consolidating the comprehensive evaluation foundation for event risk research.更多还原