【摘要】 在“碳中和碳达峰”目标下，碳减排工作要“因地制宜，统筹兼顾”。不同地区经济发展及资源禀赋有差异，以云南省为例，基于能源平衡表的建筑能耗拆分模型，测算2011年-2020年云南民用建筑碳排放量，基于STIRPAT模型，采用岭回归从人口、经济、技术三方面探究云南民用建筑碳排放的影响机理，根据云南省发展目标预测中短期的民用建筑碳排放量，最后总结碳减排策略。结果表明：影响云南民用建筑碳排放的主要因素按影响程度为人均可支配收入>常住人口城镇化率>能源强度>第三产业增加值，2025年云南民用建筑碳排放量较2020年预计增长1.2倍。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the goal of “carbon neutrality and carbon peaking”, carbon emission reduction work should be “adapted to local conditions and taken into account as a whole”. Taking Yunnan Province as the object, the carbon emissions of civil buildings in Yunnan Province from 2011 to 2020 were calculatedbased on the energy balance sheet of the building energy consumption split model. The impact mechanism of civil building carbon emissions in Yunnan was explored from the three aspects of population, economy and technology based on the STIRPAT model. The carbon emission reduction strategies of civil buildings in Yunnan Province were predicted in the short and medium term according to the development goals of Yunnan Province. The results show that the main factors affecting the carbon emissions of civil buildings in Yunnan are per capita disposable income>urbanization rate of permanent population>energy intensity>added value of the tertiary industry, and the carbon emissions of civil buildings in Yunnan in 2025 are expected to increase by 1.2 times compared with 2020.更多还原