【摘要】 烤烟是吉林省的经济作物之一，也是农民增收的重要作物之一，掌握其产量变化对保障烟农增收十分必要。气候条件是对烤烟产量影响最大的因素，目前预测评估气象因子对吉林省烤烟产量影响方面的研究较少。因此，本文利用指数平滑法分离出1981—2018年吉林省烤烟趋势产量和气象产量，利用隶属函数法确定了旺长期（6月）降水和大田生长期可用时间是影响吉林省烤烟产量的重要气象因子，计算出每个县各个影响因子的适宜度，再通过信息熵值法计算出烤烟产量气候影响因子的权重，并计算出每个地市的综合气候适宜度，最后建立烤烟气象产量与地市综合气候适宜度的多元线性回归模型。结果表明，烟叶旺长期降水和大田生长期可用时间是吉林省烤烟产量的气象限制因素，其中烤烟旺长期降水影响权重占0.81，大田生长期可用时间影响权重占0.19。通过该方法建立的产量预报模型准确率在80%以上，该方法可以用于烤烟产量评估。更多还原

【Abstract】 Flue-cured tobacco is one of the economic crops in Jilin Province, and also one of the important crops for farmers to increase their income. Understanding the yield changes is very essential to ensure an increase in the income of tobacco farmers. Climate conditions have the greatest impact on tobacco yield, and there are currently few researches on predicting and evaluating the impact of meteorological factors on flue-cured tobacco yield in Jilin Province. Therefore, this paper used the exponential smoothing method to separate the trend yield and meteorological yield of flue-cured tobacco in Jilin Province from 1981 to 2018, used the membership function method to determine that the precipitation in vigorous growth period(June) and the available time in field growth period were the important climatic factors affecting the yield of flue-cured tobacco in Jilin Province, and calculated the suitability of each influencing factor in each county. Then, through the information entropy method, this paper calculated the weight of the climate factors affecting flue-cured tobacco, and calculated the comprehensive climate suitability of each prefecturelevel city. Finally, it established a multiple linear regression model between the meteorological yield of flue-cured tobacco and the comprehensive climate suitability of prefecture-level city. The results showed that the precipitation in vigorous growth period and the available time in field growth period were the meteorological factors limiting the yield of flue-cured tobacco in Jilin Province. Among them, the influence weight of precipitation in vigorous growth period accounted for 0.81, and the influence weight of available time in field growth period accounted for 0.19. The accuracy of the yield prediction model established by this method was over 80%. This method can be used to evaluate the yield of flue-cured tobacco.更多还原